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Pompeo to sign historic U.S.-Taliban peace deal CBS This MorningView Full Coverage on Google NewsParwiz Reuters
KABUL — The United States and the Taliban signed a peace deal Saturday that calls for the full withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, marking a turning point in the 18-year war.
U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban deputy leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar inked the deal in an opulent hall in a five-star hotel in Dohar, Qatar. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo witnessed the signing.
The agreement lays out a path for a full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan beginning with a drawdown to 8,600 troops “within months” upon President Trump’s orders, according to the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Austin “Scott” Miller.
The deal stipulates that the Taliban will pledge to enter into talks with the Afghan government and not to harbor terrorist groups intent on attacking the West.
In Kabul, Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper attended a ceremony with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/video/world/the-signing-of-a-us-taliban-peace-deal-would-be-historicbut-might-not-end-the-war-in-afghanistan/2020/02/26/85361381-ed59-42c1-8ba4-8af1282006d3_video.html
“From the first day that Americans came, neither we wanted them to stay for centuries, nor they wanted that,” acting Afghan defense minister Asadullah Khalid said ahead of the ceremony in Kabul. Speaking to the press in remarks carried by Afghan state television, he said the departure of a “few thousand” U.S. troops would not affect security in Afghanistan.
After the deal is signed, the Afghan government must assemble a negotiating team and navigate a planned prisoner exchange.
The Taliban provided U.S. negotiators a list of 5,000 Taliban prisoners currently held in detention by the Afghan government. And the militants announced 1,000 members of the Afghan security forces in Taliban captivity would be released in exchange.
“This is a test for the Americans,” said former senior Taliban official Abdul Salam Zaeef. “When this step is taken properly, then we’ll go to negotiations.” Afghan government officials have said that such an exchange would only occur during inter-Afghan talks or after they are complete.
Another potential obstacle after the deal is signed is the formation of an inclusive negotiating team to represent the Afghans who are not aligned with the Taliban. The announcement of disputed election results earlier this month has left the government in Kabul deeply divided and has the potential to undermine Ghani’s mandate to form that team.
An unofficial Afghan government delegation tried to meet Taliban officials in Doha Friday, but the Taliban declined the meeting. Suhail Shaheen, a Taliban spokesman, said “We have neither invited nor will meet the delegation,” according to Radio Mashaal.
A peace deal with the Taliban has been a critical foreign policy goal for President Trump, who campaigned on ending the war.
In a statement Friday, Trump called the deal “a powerful path forward to end the war in Afghanistan and bring our troops home.” But the president has faced fierce criticism from the Afghan government as well as from fellow Republicans at home.
Afghan officials have repeatedly criticized the United States for excluding them from talks with the Taliban. Any significant withdrawal of U.S. forces from the country is expected to place increased pressure on Afghan government forces, whose casualty rates continue to rise.
On Thursday, a group of Republican lawmakers released a letter warning that the Taliban has “a history of extracting concessions in exchange for false assurances.”
“A full-scale U.S. withdrawal” would “allow terrorist groups in Afghanistan to grow stronger and establish safe havens from which to plot attacks against us,” the letter continued.
Trump’s Friday statement said “ultimately it will be up to the people of Afghanistan to work out their future. We, therefore, urge the Afghan people to seize this opportunity for peace and a new future for their country.”
U.S. and Taliban negotiators were close to signing a peace deal in September, but the effort was scuttled by Trump after an attack by the Taliban killed a U.S. soldier.
Since then, chief U.S. negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad sought confidence-building measures to bring both sides back to the table. In November, the Taliban released two Western hostages in exchange for the release of senior militants linked to the Taliban by the Afghan government. And over the last week both sides reduced violence nationwide.
It is unclear if the reduction in violence will hold in the coming weeks as Afghan government officials and the Taliban begin talks. The Afghan government initially demanded a cease-fire before agreeing to talks with the Taliban.
As peace talks between the U.S. and the Taliban gained momentum last year, violence in Afghanistan intensified. The United Nations annual report on civilian casualties released this month said that in 2019 3,403 civilians were killed and 6,989 injured.
The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan has documented more than 100,000 civilian casualties since the organization began its tally in 2009.
Sharif Hassan in Kabul and Sarah Dadouch and Haq Nawaz Khan in Doha, Qatar, contributed to this report.
Read more
The Afghanistan Papers: A secret history of the war
A glimpse of peace in Afghanistan: With fighting paused, soldiers invite Taliban over for chicken
Inside the U.S. military’s historic week in Afghanistan ahead of a peace deal with the Taliban
Today’s coverage from Post correspondents around the world
Like Washington Post World on Facebook and stay updated on foreign news
Parwiz Reuters
KABUL — The United States is set to sign a peace deal Saturday with the Taliban, its adversary in Afghanistan’s 18-year war. The deal marks a turning point in a conflict marred by years of both military and diplomatic stalemate.
One provision of the agreement is the full withdrawal of American troops that is “heavily conditions based,” according to two U.S. officials who have been briefed on the deal. The officials declined to elaborate on the conditions. They spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the deal publicly.
Separate from the provision for a full withdrawal, the signing of the deal will begin an initial drawdown to 8,600 U.S. troops upon President Trump’s orders. The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Austin “Scott” Miller said several times this week that he is prepared for such orders as he traveled across Afghanistan to visit soldiers. Current U.S. troop levels are at around 12,000 in Afghanistan.
In exchange, the deal stipulates that the Taliban will pledge to enter into talks with the Afghan government and not to harbor terrorist groups intent on attacking the West.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/video/world/the-signing-of-a-us-taliban-peace-deal-would-be-historicbut-might-not-end-the-war-in-afghanistan/2020/02/26/85361381-ed59-42c1-8ba4-8af1282006d3_video.html
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is in Doha, Qatar, to witness the signing. Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper is in Kabul for a ceremony there with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Afghan President Ashraf Ghani.
“From the first day that Americans came, neither we wanted them to stay for centuries, nor they wanted that,” acting Afghan defense minister Asadullah Khalid said ahead of the ceremony in Kabul. He said the departure of a “few thousand” U.S. troops would not affect security in Afghanistan.
Afghan national security adviser Hamdullah Mohib said the timeline for the complete withdrawal of U.S. forces is 18 months, “but it is conditional on the agreement between the Taliban and the U.S. If those conditions are not met, this date [could] also obviously change.”
Both officials spoke to the press in remarks that were carried by Afghan state television.
After the deal is signed, the Afghan government must assemble a negotiating team and navigate a planned prisoner exchange.
The Taliban provided U.S. negotiators a list of 5,000 Taliban prisoners currently held in detention by the Afghan government. And the militants announced 1,000 members of the Afghan security forces in Taliban captivity would be released in exchange.
“This is a test for the Americans,” said former senior Taliban official Abdul Salam Zaeef. “When this step is taken properly, then we’ll go to negotiations.” Afghan government officials have said that such an exchange would only occur during inter-Afghan talks or after they are complete.
Another potential obstacle after the deal is signed is the formation of an inclusive negotiating team to represent the Afghans who are not aligned with the Taliban. The announcement of disputed election results earlier this month has left the government in Kabul deeply divided and has the potential to undermine Ghani’s mandate to form that team.
An unofficial Afghan government delegation tried to meet Taliban officials in Doha Friday, but the Taliban declined the meeting. Suhail Shaheen, a Taliban spokesman, said “We have neither invited nor will meet the delegation,” according to Radio Mashaal.
A peace deal with the Taliban has been a critical foreign policy goal for President Trump, who campaigned on ending the war.
In a statement Friday, Trump called the deal “a powerful path forward to end the war in Afghanistan and bring our troops home.” But the president has faced fierce criticism from the Afghan government as well as from fellow Republicans at home.
Afghan officials have repeatedly criticized the United States for excluding them from talks with the Taliban. Any significant withdrawal of U.S. forces from the country is expected to place increased pressure on Afghan government forces, whose casualty rates continue to rise.
On Thursday, a group of Republican lawmakers released a letter warning that the Taliban has “a history of extracting concessions in exchange for false assurances.”
“A full-scale U.S. withdrawal” would “allow terrorist groups in Afghanistan to grow stronger and establish safe havens from which to plot attacks against us,” the letter continued.
Trump’s Friday statement said “ultimately it will be up to the people of Afghanistan to work out their future. We, therefore, urge the Afghan people to seize this opportunity for peace and a new future for their country.”
U.S. and Taliban negotiators were close to signing a peace deal in September, but the effort was scuttled by Trump after an attack by the Taliban killed a U.S. soldier.
Since then, chief U.S. negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad sought confidence-building measures to bring both sides back to the table. In November, the Taliban released two Western hostages in exchange for the release of senior militants linked to the Taliban by the Afghan government. And over the last week both sides reduced violence nationwide.
It is unclear if the reduction in violence will hold in the coming weeks as Afghan government officials and the Taliban begin talks. The Afghan government initially demanded a cease-fire before agreeing to talks with the Taliban.
As peace talks between the U.S. and the Taliban gained momentum last year, violence in Afghanistan intensified. The United Nations annual report on civilian casualties released this month said that in 2019 3,403 civilians were killed and 6,989 injured.
The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan has documented more than 100,000 civilian casualties since the organization began its tally in 2009.
Sharif Hassan in Kabul and Sarah Dadouch and Haq Nawaz Khan in Doha, Qatar, contributed to this report.
Read more
The Afghanistan Papers: A secret history of the war
A glimpse of peace in Afghanistan: With fighting paused, soldiers invite Taliban over for chicken
Inside the U.S. military’s historic week in Afghanistan ahead of a peace deal with the Taliban
Today’s coverage from Post correspondents around the world
Like Washington Post World on Facebook and stay updated on foreign news
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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says 18,000 migrants have crossed Turkish borders into Europe after the country "opened the doors" for them to travel.
The number is expected to hit 25,000 to 30,000 in the coming days, he said.
Turkey could no longer deal with the amount of people fleeing Syria's civil war, he added.
Greece says it has blocked thousands of migrants from entering "illegally" from Turkey.
Greek authorities fired tear gas to attempt to disperse the crowds.
Turkey's decision followed a deadly attack on Turkish troops by Syrian government forces in northern Syria this week.
At least 33 Turkish soldiers were killed in a bombardment in Idlib, the last Syrian province where Syrian rebel groups hold significant territory.
Syrian government forces, supported by Russia, have been trying to retake Idlib from jihadist groups and Turkish-backed rebel factions.
Turkey is hosting 3.7 million Syrian refugees, as well as migrants from other countries such as Afghanistan - but had previously stopped them from leaving for Europe under an aid-linked deal with the EU.
But Mr Erdogan accused the EU of breaking promises.
"We said months ago that if it goes on like this, we will have to open the doors. They did not believe us, but we opened the doors yesterday," President Erdogan said in Istanbul on Saturday.
He said that some 18,000 refugees had "pressed on the gates and crossed" into Europe by Saturday morning. He did not provide evidence of these numbers.
"We will not close these doors in the coming period and this will continue. Why? The European Union needs to keep its promises. We don't have to take care of this many refugees, to feed them," he said.
Brussels had not given full financial aid agreed in the 2018 Turkey-EU refugee deal, he said.
Greece said it had averted more than 4,000 attempts to cross into the country. There were further clashes between migrants and Greek police on Saturday.
"The government will do whatever it takes to protect its borders," government spokesman Stelios Petsas told reporters.
The Turkish president also said that he had asked Russian President Vladimir Putin - a close ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad - to stand aside and let Turkey "do what is necessary" with the Syrian government by itself.
Russia and Turkey are backing opposing sides in the civil war. Turkey is opposed to the government of Bashar al-Assad and supports some rebel groups.
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ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that he had asked President Vladimir Putin for Russia to step aside in Syria and leave Turkey to deal with Syrian government forces alone, after 34 Turkish soldiers were killed this week.
FILE PHOTO: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan addresses members of his ruling AK Party during a meeting at the Parliament in Ankara, Turkey, February 5, 2020. Presidential Press Office/Handout via REUTERS
Government forces, backed by Russian air power, have waged a major assault to capture the northwest province of Idlib, the last remaining territory held by rebels backed by Turkey.
Syrian and Russian warplanes on Saturday kept up air strikes on the Idlib city of Saraqeb, the Syrian Observatory war monitor reported. The strategic city sits on a key international roadway and has been a flashpoint of fighting in recent days.
With diplomacy sponsored by Ankara and Moscow to ease tensions in tatters, Turkey has come closer than ever to confrontation with Russia on the battlefield.
Turkish strikes using drones and smart missiles late on Friday that hit Hezbollah headquarters near Saraqeb killed nine of its members and wounded 30 in one of the bloodiest attacks on the Iran-backed group in Syria ever according to a commander in the regional alliance backing Damascus.
The Observatory said 48 pro-Damascus troops in all had been killed by Turkish strikes over the past 24 hours.
Speaking in Istanbul, Erdogan said he had told Putin in a phone call to stand aside and let Turkey “to do what is necessary” with the Syrian government alone.
He said Turkey does not intend to leave Syria right now.
“We did not go there because we were invited by (Syrian President Bashar al-Assad). We went there because we were invited by the people of Syria. We don’t intend to leave before the people of Syria, ‘okay, this is done,” Erdogan added.
As tensions rose, Russia and Turkey have held three rounds of talks, the first two of which did not yield a ceasefire.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on Saturday that the two sides agreed in this week’s talks to reduce tensions on the ground in Idlib while continuing military action there.
After the death of its soldiers in a Syrian government air strike on Thursday, Turkey said it would allow migrants it hosts to freely pass to Europe.
Erdogan said in Istanbul on Saturday that 18,000 migrants has crossed the border, without providing evidence, adding that the number could rise to 25,000-30,000 on Saturday.
Greek police fired teargas toward migrants who were gathered on its border with Turkey and demanding entry on Saturday.
“We will not close these doors in the coming period and this will continue. Why? The European Union needs to keep its promises. We don’t have to take care of this many refugees, to feed them,” he said.
He complained the funds transferred to Turkey from the European Union to support refugees were arriving too slowly and that he had asked German Chancellor Angela Merkel to send the funds directly to the Turkish government.
Turkey’s borders to Europe were closed to migrants under an accord between Turkey and the European Union that halted the 2015-16 migration crisis when more than a million people crossed into Europe by foot.
Reporting by Ali Kucukgocmen; Additional reporting by Laila Bassam and Eric Knecht; Editing by Alexander Smith and Louise Heavens
DOHA, Qatar — The United States is expected to sign a peace deal with the Taliban insurgency on Saturday that for the first time after two decades of grinding warfare would lay out the prospect of a final withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan.
The signing in Doha, Qatar, is seen as a vital step toward negotiating a more sweeping peace deal that could end the insurgency altogether, after years of unrelenting violence that took the lives of more than 3,500 Americans and coalition troops and tens of thousands of Afghans since the U.S. invasion in 2001.
But the agreement is dependent on the Taliban’s fulfillment of major commitments that have been obstacles for years, including breaking with international terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda. And it hinges on far more difficult negotiations between the two Afghan sides to come, addressing the shape of a potential power-sharing government and a lasting cease-fire — both anathema to the Taliban in the past.
The Trump administration has cast the deal as its pledge to a war-weary American public, for whom the Afghanistan war has defined a generation of loss and trauma and roughly $2 trillion in expenditures but has yielded no victory.
“If the Taliban and the government of Afghanistan live up to these commitments, we will have a powerful path forward to end the war in Afghanistan and bring our troops home,” President Trump said on Friday ahead of the signing of the deal, which he dispatched Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to attend.
“These commitments represent an important step to a lasting peace in a new Afghanistan, free from Al Qaeda, ISIS, and any other terrorist group that would seek to bring us harm.”
From the start of the talks, late in 2018, Afghan officials were troubled that they were not at the table with American and Taliban officials. They worried that Mr. Trump would abruptly withdraw troops from Afghanistan without securing any of the conditions they saw as crucial, including a reduction in violence and a Taliban promise to negotiate in good faith with the government.
The best-case prospect laid out by the deal expected to be signed on Saturday is alluring: ultimately, the possibility for Afghans of an end to conflict that in one form or other has stretched for 40 years.
But behind that hope lies a web of contradictions.
The United States, which struggled to help secure better rights for women and minorities and instill a democratic system and institutions in Afghanistan, is reaching a deal with an insurgency that has never renounced its desire for a government and justice system rooted in a harsh interpretation of Islam. Though the Taliban would get their primary wish granted by this agreement, the withdrawal of American troops, they have made no firm commitments to protect civil rights for people they brutally repressed when in power.
Among the Taliban, bringing the world’s premier military power to the point of withdrawal has widely been seen as a victory with few caveats. And the public messaging from Taliban officials has not been conciliatory.
“This is the hotel that tomorrow will turn into a historic hotel,” the Taliban’s multimedia chief posted on Twitter on Friday with a photograph of the Sheraton in Doha, site of the signing. “From here, the defeat of the arrogance of the White House in the face of the white turban will be announced.”
The expected deal provides a conditional schedule for the withdrawal of the 12,000 remaining American troops. In the first phase, about 5,000 are to leave in a matter of months. The withdrawal of the rest will depend on the Taliban keeping its end of the bargain.
The insurgents had to pledge to break with international terrorist networks and forbid Afghanistan’s use as a base for attacks by groups like Al Qaeda, which launched the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the United States from the haven the Taliban granted it in Afghanistan.
As part of the deal, the Taliban would also agree to open talks directly with the Afghan government and other leaders, ostensibly to negotiate a political settlement and an eventual cease-fire. But an immediate cease-fire to address the bloodshed that regularly rips through Afghanistan is not part of the agreement.
While American diplomats had pushed for a cease-fire, they settled for a “reduction in violence” and tested it over a stretch of seven days before the signing. Officials said attacks had dropped by as much as 80 percent during that period, and the hope was that the reduction could continue in the next phase, until the two Afghan sides could agree to a more comprehensive cease-fire.
Zalmay Khalilzad, the veteran diplomat leading the American peace efforts and himself a native of Afghanistan, long insisted that the United States was not simply seeking a withdrawal agreement, but “a peace agreement that enables withdrawal.”
The Taliban’s willingness to enter negotiations with other Afghans, including the government, over a political settlement has offered hope and fear to the Afghan people.
The hope is that a durable peace can be reached after generations of conflict and suffering. The fear is that the most difficult work lies ahead, and that the Taliban will come to the negotiations emboldened by the American withdrawal announcement after years of insurgent gains on the battlefield against the badly bloodied Afghan security forces.
The nearly two decades of war have been devastating, both in human and economic terms, though exact numbers are in many cases hard to come by.
Much of the peace negotiations happened in a year of record violence from both sides. In just the last quarter of 2019, the Taliban carried out 8,204 attacks, the highest in same period over the past decade. The United States dropped 7,423 bombs and missiles during the year, a record since the Air Force began recording the data in 2006.
In the past five years, about 50,000 members of the Afghan security forces have been killed, and tens of thousands of others wounded. The Taliban’s losses are harder to verify, but their casualty rate is believed to be comparable. Out of about 3,550 NATO coalition deaths in Afghanistan, nearly 2,400 have been Americans.
Lara Jakes contributed reporting from Washington.
Troubling new signs of how the coronavirus is spreading in the United States emerged on Friday, as cases not explained by overseas travel or contact with a person known to be infected were reported in California, Oregon and Washington State.
Officials from the three states announced that their testing had found new cases: a high school student from Washington State; an employee of a school in Oregon, near Portland; and a woman in Santa Clara County, Calif., in the heart of Silicon Valley.
Sixty-five cases of the virus have been reported in the United States, but until this week, all of them could be explained by overseas travel or contact with someone who had been ill. The three new cases on Friday, and a case earlier in the week, in California, were the first in the United States in which the cause was mysterious and unknown — a sign, experts warned, that the virus might now be spreading in this country.
“If we were worried yesterday, we are even more worried today,” said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. “Now we have to ask: How widely, really widely, is this virus out there?”
As word emerged of the unexplained cases, local officials scrambled to trace everyone who had come in contact with those who were ill. California health officials said they were increasing testing. And in Washington State, officials suggested that people needed to prepare for the possibility of schools closing and businesses keeping workers home.
“We’re going to be increasingly recommending that people try and avoid crowds and close contact with other people,” Dr. Jeff Duchin, health officer for Public Health Seattle & King County, said. “We may get to a point where we want to recommend canceling large public gatherings — social events, sporting events, entertainment — until we get over a hump of what might be a large outbreak.”
Stocks tumbled for a seventh consecutive day on Friday, recording the market’s worst week since the 2008 financial crisis.
The S&P 500 index fell about 0.8 percent, and the Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 1 percent. The S&P index lost more than 11 percent in the week, and almost 13 percent since its peak on Feb. 19.
The sell-off was fueled mostly by worry that measures to contain the coronavirus would hamper corporate profits and economic growth, and fears that the outbreak could get worse. The selling has in a matter of days dragged stock benchmarks around the world into a correction — a drop of 10 percent or more that is taken as a measure of extreme pessimism.
In Europe, the Britain’s FTSE 100 fell more than 3 percent and the Dax in Germany fell more than 4 percent. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 in Japan closed down 3.7 percent, the KOSPI in South Korea dropped 3.3 percent and the Shanghai Composite in China dropped 3.7 percent.
South Korea, which has the largest coronavirus outbreak outside China, reported 594 new cases on Saturday morning, bringing its total to 2,931. In North Korea, Kim Jong-un ordered all-out efforts to fight the virus at a high-level meeting, state media reported.
South Korean officials have warned that confirmed cases would rise sharply as they aggressively tested thousands of people, particularly in the southeastern city of Daegu. More than 86 percent of patients have been in Daegu and nearby towns; many have been associated with a church called Shincheonji, which has a strong presence in Daegu.
The United States military, which has more than 28,000 personnel in South Korea, said on Saturday that the spouse of an American soldier infected with the virus had also tested positive for it. She had been in self-quarantine since Wednesday, following her husband’s diagnosis, and was being transported to a military hospital, the military said.
Also on Saturday, Mr. Kim, North Korea’s leader, convened the Politburo of his ruling party to order an all-out campaign to prevent an outbreak, state media reported. The North has not reported any coronavirus cases, but there has been concern that the secretive, totalitarian country could be hiding an outbreak.
“In case the infectious disease spreading beyond control finds its way into our country, it will entail serious consequences,” the North’s official Korean Central News Agency quoted Mr. Kim as saying. It said that officials had discussed “measures to deter the influx and spread of the infectious disease in a scientific, preemptive and lockdown way.”
North Korea has already closed its 930-mile border with China, where the coronavirus emerged, and its border with Russia. But the Chinese border has long been porous for smugglers, who ferry goods across the shallow river that separates the countries. The North has also suspended all flights and trains to and from China and asked all foreign diplomats not to leave their compounds.
The state media report Saturday also said that Mr. Kim had fired one of his top aides, Ri Man-gon, and another official for corruption, but it was unclear whether the dismissals were connected to the antivirus campaign.
A Japanese man who was allowed to disembark from the Diamond Princess cruise ship after testing negative for the virus has now tested positive — after he took public transportation home, according to Japanese officials.
He is the fifth passenger to test positive after disembarking and being allowed to travel freely.
The man, who is in his 70s, was among nearly 1,000 people allowed to leave the virus-stricken cruise ship last week, after two weeks of quarantine in the port of Yokohama. The cruise ship, which originally carried 3,700 passengers and crew, became a hotbed of infection: More than 700 people who were aboard have tested positive, and at least six people have died.
The man had tested negative for the virus when he disembarked on Feb. 20, and he used public transportation to travel home to the city of Sendai, about 250 miles north. But on Friday, he developed a sore throat and a slight fever, according to an announcement by Sendai’s mayor. He was confirmed to be infected on Saturday. His family tested negative.
The high number of infections aboard the Diamond Princess has brought intense scrutiny upon Japanese officials, who ordered the quarantine. The disembarkation process has also been marred by mismanagement: Japan’s health minister was forced to apologize after 23 people left the ship without being tested.
As the coronavirus outbreak spreads, the world’s biggest companies have begun painting a bleak picture of broken supply chains, disrupted manufacturing, empty stores and flagging demand for their wares.
The announcements by businesses like Mastercard, Microsoft, Apple and United Airlines offer a look at how the virus is affecting consumer behavior and business sentiment. These corporate bulletins — and what executives do in response — could determine how much economic damage the outbreak inflicts.
Some companies have expressed optimism that governments will curb new infections and that consumer spending in Europe and North America will be largely unscathed. But if executives see a threat beyond the first three months of the year, they may pare planned investments and even lay off workers.
The stock-market plunge this week, the steepest since the financial crisis, suggests that investors are bracing for a bad news.
“Everything is slowing down even more — and that has not been fully appreciated,” said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading.
Many times in many countries, political leaders have tried to censor health officials and play down the risks of infection just as epidemics approached. This strategy has almost never worked, historians and former health officials said.
And if there are more deaths than leaders predict, stonewalling destroys the reputations of the leaders themselves.
This week’s efforts to reorganize the Trump administration’s chaotic response to the coronavirus outbreak risk falling into that pattern. The White House will coordinate all messaging, the public was told, and scientists in the government will not be popping up on television talk shows, saying what they think.
That may not be a winning strategy, experts warned. The stock market reacts to rumors, and the Federal Reserve Bank may succumb to political pressure. But pathogens, like hurricanes and tsunamis, are immune to spin.
“It’s crucially important that experts tell the public what they know and when they know it,” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “That’s the only way to earn and maintain the public trust that is essential to work together as a society and fight an epidemic.”
When the coronavirus emerged in Wuhan, China, residents in a nearby suburb thought they were safe. Zuoling New Town, a bustling community of retired farmers, factory workers and white-collar professionals, was 22 miles from the market where the outbreak appeared to have started.
But as the virus spread, Zuoling emerged as a stubborn hot spot of infections, and a somber lesson in how the state’s effort to contain the virus left some communities vulnerable. The leadership’s top-down campaign relied on grass-roots mobilization, and the very newness and isolation of Zuoling proved to be a weakness, depriving residents of food supplies, medical care and labor.
Residents crammed into the only large supermarket to stock up. Those worried about fevers crowded the local clinic, and many were sent back to their high-rise homes, sometimes spreading the virus. The nearest public hospital assigned to take patients was 10 miles away, making it difficult to get treatment without a car.
“I never imagined that this would hit our home,” said Zhang Jin, a 47-year-old resident. His mother, Yan Yinzhen, who was living with him, contracted what doctors believed was the coronavirus, possibly from a neighbor. Mr. Zhang, his wife and father all fell ill.
“We’ve lost confidence,” said Mr. Zhang, a school bus driver. “Nobody in the neighborhood took charge.”
Reporting and research were contributed by Peter Eavis, Donald G. McNeil Jr., Choe Sang-Hun, Thomas Fuller, Sheri Fink, Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs, Amy Qin, Sui-Lee Wee, Vivian Wang, Motoko Rich and Makiko Inoue.
