North Korean Missile Test Seen As Pressure Tactic Aimed At US - NPR

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A man watches a television showing file footage of a North Korean missile launch, at a railway station in Seoul on Thursday after North Korea fired two short-range missiles into the sea. Jung Yeon-je/AFP/Getty Images hide caption

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North Korea has fired two short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan, the first such test since a high-profile meeting last month between President Trump and Kim Jong Un.

Official North Korean media on Thursday described the test of "projectiles," but Western experts quickly noted that the range, about 270 miles, and flight path of at least one of the missiles pointed strongly to it being a KN-23 SRBM, which was previously tested in May, a month before Trump and Kim met at the Demilitarized Zone separating the two Koreas.

However, an unnamed South Korean defense official was quoted by Reuters as saying one of the missiles appeared to be of a new, longer-range design, flying about 430 miles.

The move by Pyongyang is seen as tactic to pressure the U.S. as it tries to get nuclear negotiations with Korea back on track. Even so, it is considered less provocative than 2017 tests of North Korea's ICBMs, which are capable of reaching the U.S.

It comes as National Security Adviser John Bolton, a hardliner on relations with North Korea, is meeting with South Korean officials in Seoul to discuss strengthening the U.S.-South Korea alliance.

It also follows a warning less than a week ago from North Korea that exercises planned between the U.S. and South Korea could jeopardize further denuclearization talks.

After a historic summit last June between Trump and Kim in Singapore, the president boasted that he had persuaded North Korea to denuclearize. But a follow up summit in Hanoi earlier this year quickly fell apart and the North Korean regime has shown few, if any, signs of taking concrete steps to end its nuclear or ballistic missile programs.

“North Korea recommits to denuclearization - we’ve come a long way.” @FoxNews

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 19, 2018

The White House did not immediately respond to the news, but South Korea's Defense Ministry spokesman Choi Hyun-soo called the test "not helpful" in reducing tensions between the Koreas. Japan's Defense Minister Takeshi Iwaya told reporters in Tokyo that "If they were ballistic missiles, they violate the U.N. sanctions, and I find it extremely regrettable."

A South Korean defense official, speaking to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity, said the missiles were launched from mobile platforms at a site near Wonsan on North Korea's coast.

North Korea has also been working on submarine-launched ballistic missiles and earlier this week, North Korea's Central News Agency released photographs of leader Kim inspecting a newly built submarine. Although there were no details released, Kim was quoted as expressing "great satisfaction over the fact that the submarine was designed and built to be capable of fully implementing the military strategic intention" of North Korea.

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https://www.npr.org/2019/07/25/745144254/north-korea-conducts-missile-tests-while-bolton-meets-with-officials-in-seoul

2019-07-25 06:22:00Z
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Boris Johnson becomes UK's new prime minister - BBC News

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Boris Johnson said he wanted to "change the country for the better" after he became the UK's new prime minister.

Speaking outside Downing Street, he said the UK would leave the EU on 31 October "no ifs, no buts", adding: "The buck stops with me."

"The doubters, the doomsters, the gloomsters" who said it could not be done were "wrong", the new PM added.

He also promised to sort out care for the elderly "once and for all", and invest in transport and education.

Reforms to the social care sector have eluded previous governments because of their cost and complexity.

"We will fix it once and for all with a clear plan we have prepared to give every older person the dignity and security they deserve," he insisted.

Mr Johnson listed a wide range of domestic ambitions, including improving infrastructure, recruiting 20,000 new police officers and "levelling up" school spending. He also promised reforms to ensure the £20bn in extra funding earmarked for the NHS "really gets to the front line".

He pledged to boost the UK's biotech and space science sectors, change the tax rules to provide incentives for investment, and do more to promote the welfare of animals.

Cabinet changes

The new PM will shortly begin announcing some senior cabinet appointments - and ahead of that, other ministers are making way.

In a surprise move, Defence Secretary Penny Mordaunt, a leading Brexiteer who backed Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt in the Tory leadership contest, announced she was returning to the backbenches.

She was joined moments later by another Brexiteer, Liam Fox.

On Wednesday, there was speculation that Mr Hunt, whose own future is uncertain, had been offered Ms Mordaunt's job and turned it down.

It is believed Mr Johnson is about to meet ministers who he is planning to dismiss in his offices in Parliament.

Among those who could leave include the Business Secretary Greg Clark and Northern Ireland Secretary Karen Bradley, both close allies of Mrs May.

Sweeping changes are expected after Chancellor Philip Hammond, Justice Secretary David Gauke and Cabinet Office minister David Lidington all quit in the past few hours.

Setting out his priorities for office, the former London mayor hit out at the "pessimists" who did not believe Brexit could be delivered and called for an end to three years of indecision.

"The people who bet against Britain are going to lose their shirts because we are going to restore trust in our democracy," he said.

"The time has come to act, to take decisions and change this country for the better."

He said he had "every confidence" the UK would leave the EU in 99 days time with a deal, but preparations for the "remote possibility" of a no-deal Brexit would be accelerated.

'Personal responsibility'

Mr Johnson vowed to bring all four nations of the United Kingdom - or what he described as the "awesome foursome" - together in the task of strengthening a post-Brexit country.

"Though I am today building a great team of men and women, I will take personal responsibility for the change I want to see," he concluded.

"Never mind the backstop, the buck stops with me."

The BBC's Vicki Young said she was struck by the ambition of Mr Johnson's objectives beyond Brexit and the fact that he would take personal responsibility for his success or failure in achieving them.

Labour's Sir Keir Starmer said Mr Johnson's speech was "all rhetoric" and the new PM needed to show leadership rather than the "glib" answers he had become known for.

The new Lib Dem leader, Jo Swinson, said she would welcome a cross-party push to find a solution on social care, but attacked Mr Johnson's "bluster and bravado" over Brexit.

Mr Johnson took over after Theresa May handed in her resignation to the Queen. A number of her senior ministers have also already resigned, saying they could not serve under her successor.

Earlier, as she relinquished power after three years, Mrs May said being prime minister had been "the greatest honour" and wished her successor well.

In a farewell speech outside No 10, she said his government's "successes will be our country's successes".

Mr Johnson's audience with Queen Elizabeth II lasted more than half an hour.

During his journey to Buckingham Palace, his car was briefly held up by protesters from Greenpeace, who formed a human chain across The Mall.

Mr Johnson's partner, Carrie Symonds, and key members of his staff were awaiting the new prime minister's arrival in Downing Street.

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2019-07-24 15:45:00Z
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Theresa May to step down, Boris Johnson to become U.K. prime minister, in elaborate transition of power - The Washington Post

British Prime Minister Theresa May takes questions for the last time in parliament before traveling to Buckingham Palace to formally submit her resignation.

The British government is in transition on Wednesday, as Prime Minister Theresa May steps down and Boris Johnson takes her place. Here’s how the day will unfold:

●May hosted her last session of Prime Minister’s Questions in Parliament and will soon deliver farewell remarks at 10 Downing Street.

● May will then submit her resignation to Queen Elizabeth II at Buckingham Palace.

● Johnson will formally become prime minister following his own audience with the queen.

● Johnson will deliver his first speech at Downing Street and begin to form his cabinet.

LONDON — Boris Johnson awoke Wednesday to a pile of British newspapers on his doorstep announcing his victory — some celebratory, some not. The Metro tabloid went with “Don’t Panic!” as an all-caps headline. The Express front page read, “Hang Onto Your Hats. Here Comes Boris!”

The transition of power in Britain is lightening quick. The United Kingdom is not without a premier for more than an hour. The outgoing Prime Minister Theresa May will curtsy to the Queen Wednesday afternoon and resign. Johnson will bow and be asked to form a new government.

When Johnson walks through the black enameled door of 10 Downing Street on Wednesday afternoon, he will fulfill what his biographers describe as his relentless “blond ambition” to follow his hero, Winston Churchill, into Britain’s top job.

He will immediately face the buzz saw of Brexit. And although his supporters hope the charismatic Johnson will rally a divided Parliament and a divided country in a way that Theresa May failed to do, he comes into office as a controversial leader, not especially well-liked by most Brits.

Johnson — a bombastic, Latin-quoting Oxford classicist with a mop of intentionally mussed yellow hair — made his name as an over-the-top journalist and a colorful London mayor. He then galvanized the successful Brexit campaign in 2016, which won him many fans and many enemies. 

[Who is Boris Johnson? Everything you need to know about Britain’s next prime minister.]

On Wednesday, the transition began when Theresa May appeared in the House of Commons for her last session of prime minister’s questions, a weekly exchange between the ruling government and the opposition, as tradition dictates, “two sword lengths apart.”

There were many lines applauding May’s term and her 33 years in public service, and many calling her a failure.

When Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn laid into May, saying that under her tenure, child poverty was up, pensioner poverty was up, school class size was up, food bank use was up — May retorted that she was proud of her record. “That’s what my government has delivered. More jobs, healthier finances and an economy fit for the future.”

May eyed Corbyn and poked him with her blade: “As a party leader who has accepted when her time was up, perhaps the time is now for him to do the same.”

Theresa May tells Jeremy Corbyn to quit during her last exchange in Parliament as prime minister with the Labour leader.

May offered tepid support for her successor, whom opposition rivals called “flagrant” and “reckless,” a usurper with no mandate, and someone who is prepared to “sell our country out to Donald Trump and his friends.”

May said she was “pleased” to hand over to Johnson, whom I worked with when he was in my cabinet,” and who is committed to delivering Brexit. Johnson notably quit May’s Cabinet over her handling of Brexit.

After she steps down as leader, May will return to the back benches of Parliament as an ordinary and not very influential lawmaker.

Outside the House of Commons, Fleet Street was in a tizzy over possible picks for Johnson’s team — including the “great offices of state” — the chancellor, foreign secretary and home secretary — and what they could mean for Brexit and his style of governing. Johnson has just 99 days to find a Brexit solution. Otherwise, he has warned that Britain might accept the economic risk of leaving the bloc without a withdrawal agreement or transition period.

Will Johnson lean towards compromise? Or tilt towards a ‘no deal’ Brexit? The line-up of his top team could also signal whether he intends to govern, as he suggested on the campaign trail, like he did as mayor of London, where he was known as a liberal Conservative.

Britain’s newspapers heralded former London Mayor Boris Johnson as he prepared to take over as prime minister, July 24.

May will soon deliver farewell remarks at Downing Street and then travel to Buckingham Palace — probably under the watchful eye of hovering media helicopters — where she will tender her resignation to Queen Elizabeth II and recommend Johnson as the person who can command the confidence of the House of Commons. 

After May’s car leaves the palace, one carrying Johnson will arrive for a ceremony known as “kissing hands.”

In the movie “The Queen,” starring Helen Mirren, the actor playing Tony Blair kissed the hand of the monarch, but in reality, there’s more likely to be shaking hands. Theresa May shook hands and curtseyed — deeply — during her meeting with the queen when she became prime minister.

Adrian Dennis

AFP/Getty Images

Britain's new Prime Minister Theresa May and her husband, Philip, stand outside 10 Downing Street on July 13, 2016.

Johnson will be the queen’s 14th prime minister. Over the course of her long reign, Elizabeth II has seen them come and go: Winston Churchill, Anthony Eden, Harold Macmillan, Alec Douglas-Home, Harold Wilson, Edward Heath, James Callaghan, Margaret Thatcher, John Major, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, David Cameron, Theresa May and now Johnson.

Much attention today will focus on his remarks after he leaves the palace. The first speech a prime minister delivers is heavily scrutinized and often long remembered. 

For her first speech as prime minister, May talked of tackling “burning injustices” in society and leading a government that worked for everyone, not the “privileged few.” Those promises for a Tory-led “social justice” program were often thrown back in her face, when May mostly failed to address those issues. She was consumed with Brexit. The same could happen to her successor.

Matt Hancock, a Conservative politician who has been helping with Johnson’s campaign, told the BBC he expected Johnson’s speech to include “a surprising amount of detail, especially on the domestic agenda.” He said that, at the same time as delivering Brexit, Johnson wanted to focus on domestic issues and pointed out that on the campaign trail Johnson spoke about education, social care and policing.

Once prime minister, Johnson is expected to start naming his new team and new cabinet. Johnson has said he wants a cabinet rich with pro-Brexit voices — with each chair filled by someone who is okay with the incoming prime minister’s vow, that if he does not get the Brexit deal he wants from Europe, then Britain will crash out with no deal.

Johnson handily won the leadership contest on Tuesday. The former foreign secretary Johnson captured 92,153 votes to current foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt’s 46,656 — a decisive victory. 

Tolga Akmen

AFP/Getty Images

New Conservative Party leader and incoming prime minister Boris Johnsonleaves his campaign office in central London on Tuesday.

But the vote involved only dues-paying members of the Conservative Party. A mere 139,000 people cast ballots in a country of 66 million. A lot of Britons feel left out at a pivotal moment. On social media, #NotMyPM was one of the many Johnson-related hashtags trending. A YouGov survey found that 58 percent of Brits have a negative opinion of Johnson — a wicked-high number for a first day on the job.

The 55-year-old Johnson will take up residence at Downing Street. His 31-year-old girlfriend, Carrie Symonds, a former Conservative Party communications official and a top Tory spinner, may move in over the weekend, according to British news reports. Expect a lot of tabloid interest in this unprecedented arrangement.

When Johnson clocks in, he will face an overflowing in-tray of items that need urgent attention, including a showdown in the Persian Gulf with a belligerent Iran. The two countries have been in a tense standoff since Britain impounded an Iranian tanker suspected of sending oil to Syria, and Iran retaliated by seizing a British-flagged oil tanker last week.

Politics watchers are keen to see whether Johnson continues Britain’s effort to salvage the 2015 deal designed to discourage Iran from developing nuclear weapons, or whether he bends to U.S. pressure to impose sanctions on Iran.

[Want to understand Boris Johnson, Britain’s probable next prime minister? Read his incendiary journalism.]

But Johnson’s main challenge will be getting Britain out of the European Union.

May’s failure to deliver Brexit on time was the reason her Tory lawmakers ousted her.

Read more

Who is Boris Johnson? His life in photos.

Boris Johnson wins vote to be U.K. prime minister

Theresa May packs her bags, her legacy dominated by failure

Want to understand Boris Johnson? Read his journalism.

What Boris Johnson said about Trump when he wasn’t being so diplomatic

Boris Johnson says he’s prepared for a no-deal Brexit. Critics say he’s reckless.

Boris Johnson’s rise could be a preamble to his fall

Today’s coverage from Post correspondents around the world

Like Washington Post World on Facebook and stay updated on foreign news

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2019-07-24 11:59:01Z
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Iran tanker seizure: Owner makes first contact with crew - BBC News

The crew of a British-flagged tanker that was seized in the Gulf are "safe", the vessel's owner has said after speaking to them for the first time.

The British-flagged Stena Impero and its 23 crew were taken by Iran's Revolutionary Guard on Friday.

The owner, Stena Bulk, made contact on Tuesday with the ship's master who said they were safe and there was good co-operation with the Iranians on board.

The vessel seizure came amid heightened tensions between Iran and the UK.

Iran said it had detained the Stena Impero on 19 July because it collided with a fishing boat, but Stena Bulk has said it has received no evidence of a collision.

The firm said the family members of the crew - who are Indian, Russian, Latvian and Filipino - were being kept updated on the latest developments and being offered its full support.

Its chief executive, Erik Hanell, said he hoped the phone contact was "a first sign that we will soon see more positive progress from the Iranian authorities".

A spokesman for Stena Bulk said the next step would be to try and get somebody on board to check on the crew, but there was no timeline for when they might be repatriated.

On Monday, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt called on Iran to release the tanker and its crew, describing its seizure as "state piracy".

The same day Iranian state media released images which appeared to show cooks preparing meals and crew members being briefed by an Iranian official.

Meanwhile, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has praised Iran's Revolutionary Guard for the seizure in the Strait of Hormuz, saying they were "brave" and acted in a "professional" manner.

Mr Rouhani added that the Strait of Hormuz - a key shipping route - was "no place for games" and no country could ignore international rules, his official website reported.

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Tensions between the UK and Iran deteriorated earlier this month when Royal Marines seized an Iranian tanker near Gibraltar which was suspected of breaking EU sanctions.

In response to the incident, Iran threatened to seize a British oil tanker.

Relations between Iran and the US have also deteriorated, after the White House tightened sanctions on Tehran following its withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal.

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2019-07-24 10:28:52Z
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Russia expresses 'deep regret' over South Korea airspace violation, Seoul says - Fox News

Russia expressed “deep regret” over one of its warplanes entering into South Korea’s airspace during its first joint air patrol with China Tuesday and promised to launch an investigation into the incident, South Korea’s presidential office said Wednesday.

Russia told the South Korean government that it will launch a probe into the case and take the necessary next steps depending on the investigation’s outcome, South Korea’s Cheong Wa Dae told the Yonhap News Agency.

RUSSIA CONFIRMS JOINT AIR PATROL WITH CHINA AFTER SOUTH KOREA CLAIMS AIRSPACE VIOLATION

On Tuesday, South Korean air force jets fired 360 rounds of warning shots in response to “multiple” Russian military planes that entered into the South's airspace, officials said.

Russia confirmed Tuesday that it had carried out its first-ever joint air patrol with China, an event which prompted South Korea to scramble fighter jets in response. Moscow's defense ministry said four bombers, supported by fighter jets, patrolled a pre-planned route over "neutral waters" in the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea, according to the BBC.

SOUTH KOREA SAYS IT FIRED 360 WARNING ROUNDS AT RUSSIAN JETS WHO ENTERED ITS AIRSPACE, MOSCOW DISPUTES INCIDENT

South Korea claimed that two Tu-95 bombers and one A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft entered the South's air defense identification zone along with two Chinese bombers off its east coast before the A-50 intruded in South Korean airspace.

An unspecified number of South Korean fighter jets, including F-16s, scrambled to the area and fired 10 flares and 80 rounds from machine guns as warning shots.

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

Seoul defense officials said the Russian reconnaissance aircraft left the area three minutes later but later returned and violated South Korean airspace again for four minutes. The officials said the South Korean fighter jets then fired another 10 flares and 280 rounds from machine guns as warning shots.

Seoul claimed that Tuesday's incident marked the first time a foreign military plane had violated its airspace since the end of the Korean War. Officials added that the Chinese planes did not intrude upon South Korean airspace.

Fox News’ Edmund DeMarche and the Associated Press contributed to this report.

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2019-07-24 10:59:35Z
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Boris Johnson: May bidding farewell before new PM takes office - BBC News

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Theresa May is taking MPs' questions for the final time before Boris Johnson becomes prime minister.

Later, she will deliver a farewell speech in Downing Street and travel to Buckingham Palace to hand her resignation to the Queen.

Mr Johnson will then have his own audience at the palace before making his first speech as PM outside No 10.

He will then begin announcing senior cabinet posts - sources say his top team will reflect "modern Britain".

Mr Johnson is expected to use the opportunity to increase the number of women in full cabinet positions and boost the representation of ethnic minorities.

The former London mayor won a decisive victory over Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt in a ballot of Tory members - gaining a 66.4% total share of the vote.

Conversations are said to be "ongoing" between Mr Hunt and Mr Johnson about the foreign secretary's next role.

The BBC's Laura Kuenssberg says Mr Johnson's choice of his top team is critical in his efforts to bring the warring factions of his party together.

Mr Johnson is resolute that his leadership rival should not stay on at the Foreign Office, but Mr Hunt is firm that he won't accept anything less than his current role - or becoming home secretary, chancellor or deputy prime minister - and considers other moves a demotion.

Our political editor says it is a risky decision for the new PM - forcing Mr Hunt out would be a bad move in terms of uniting the party, but giving in to his refusal to budge is a challenge to his authority.

Meanwhile, Dominic Cummings, the former chief of the Vote Leave campaign, is expected to become a senior adviser to the new prime minister.

David Frost, a former ambassador and senior official at the Foreign Office, will be appointed as a key negotiator on Brexit.

After his victory, Mr Johnson said his priorities were to deliver Brexit, unite the country and defeat Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

Another key decision he faces is who will take over at the Treasury after Chancellor Philip Hammond signalled his intention to resign if Mr Johnson became leader.

Those said to be in the frame include Home Secretary Sajid Javid, former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and Liz Truss, Mr Hammond's current deputy at the Treasury.

All the makings of a disaster?

Boris Johnson's political inheritance has all the makings of a disaster.

He has no Commons majority. There is no mandate from the general public - remember this election has only been decided by Tory members.

There are policy problems everywhere in sight, whether that's trying to solve the conundrums of Brexit with a reluctant EU and a divided party, or trying to address deep-seated problems at home.

And just as among his fans there is genuine excitement that he will, at last, be in Number 10, there is scepticism and disbelief from the opposition parties, and double-sided concerns in his own party.

Read Laura's full analysis here

Sweeping changes are expected in the wider cabinet, with a number of other ministers, including Justice Secretary David Gauke and Development Secretary Rory Stewart, having said they cannot serve under Mr Johnson due to his determination to leave the EU, with or without a deal, on 31 October.

Those tipped for promotion include Employment Minister Alok Sharma and Local Government Minister Rishi Sunak.

Priti Patel could return to the cabinet less than two years after resigning as international development secretary over a row over unauthorised meetings with Israeli officials.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Ms Patel said she did not want to "speculate" on a potential cabinet role, but added it was "important that we have a government that reflects modern Britain".

And former Sports Minister Tracey Crouch, who quit last year in a dispute with the Treasury over fixed-odds betting terminals, could also be in line for a recall.

A source close to Mr Johnson said: "Boris will build a cabinet showcasing all the talents within the party that truly reflect modern Britain."

Meanwhile, Tory donor Sir Mick Davis has resigned as chief executive of the Conservative Party, saying the new leader should be able to choose his own team.

In a letter, he urged fellow donors to get behind Boris Johnson, adding the new PM "can only be effective if a strong and unified party stands behind him".

Mr Johnson will inherit a wafer-thin parliamentary majority and, like his predecessor, will continue to rely on the support of the Democratic Unionists of Northern Ireland to govern.

Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP have said they will oppose him over Brexit, although they have stopped short of threatening an immediate vote of no confidence.

Shadow international trade secretary Barry Gardiner said "discussions are ongoing" between Labour and potential Tory rebels to find out who might support such a vote.

He told Radio 4's Today programme it was "the nuclear option" which should be "used carefully".

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Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage has said he is open to an electoral pact with Mr Johnson - if the new Tory leader is genuine about taking the UK out of the EU on 31 October.

Mr Farage said Mr Johnson would need to call an election if he wanted a no-deal Brexit, in order to "change the arithmetic" in the Commons.

But Health Secretary Matt Hancock, who is part of Mr Johnson's transition team, said the incoming PM didn't want to see an early election.

"There is no way that we are going to have any kind of electoral pact with the Brexit Party and Nigel Farage," he told the Today programme.

• What the US makes of Boris Johnson

US President Donald Trump, speaking to a right-wing youth organisation in Washington DC, said Mr Johnson and Mr Farage would do "tremendous things" together.

Who is Dominic Cummings?

A political strategist and adviser known for his bullish style, Mr Cummings is a long-time Eurosceptic.

In 2004, he led the campaign against a North East regional assembly, and in 2007 went to work for Conservative MP Michael Gove, first in opposition and then while he served as education secretary.

In 2015, Mr Cummings was appointed campaign director of Vote Leave and became a key architect of its messages, including "take back control" and the controversial "£350m-a-week for the NHS" pledge.

Since the referendum, Mr Cummings has often been outspoken on the Brexit process, describing it in 2018 as having been "irretrievably botched" by the May government.

Laura Kuenssberg said some Brexiteers would be pleased with his appointment, seeing it as a strong sign of Mr Johnson's commitment to a 31 October exit. However, she said there was a lot of very angry water under the bridge between him and Tory MPs on the ERG wing because he refused to allow many of them to be involved in Vote Leave.

Earlier this year, Mr Cummings was found in contempt of Parliament for refusing to give evidence to a committee of MPs investigating "fake news". In return, he accused the committee of "spreading errors and lies".

• Watch a special programme on Boris Johnson: The New Prime Minister with Andrew Marr on Wednesday 24 July at 19:30 BST on BBC One, or afterwards on BBC iPlayer.

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2019-07-24 10:18:45Z
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If Boris Johnson shifts his Brexit plans, the pound could trade 'north of $1.35,' says UBS - CNBC

Newly elected leader of the Conservative party Boris Johnson leaves Conservative party HQ in London, after it was announced that he will become the next Prime Minister.

Stefan Rousseau | PA Images | Getty Images

Incoming British Prime Minister Boris Johnson may need to rethink his stance on Brexit, given Parliament's opposition to a so-called hard Brexit, a UBS investor projected on Wednesday. That's likely to impact the weakened pound, he said.

Johnson, who won the race to the lead country on Tuesday, previously said the U.K. must leave the European Union by Oct. 31 "do or die, come what may."

But that may not continue to be his outlook as he weighs the best path forward.

"Being a prime minister, things can change, and so maybe we also think about a little bit of an extension to the Brexit negotiation," Dominic Schnider, head for commodities and Asia Pacific foreign exchange at UBS Global Wealth Management, told CNBC's "Squawk Box."

Should Johnson soften his perspective on Brexit, there will be consequences for the British pound, Schnider projected.

"If the market realizes that the hard Brexit probability starts to shrink, I think the pound can come back. So we're probably going to trade north of $1.30, $1.35, somewhere there," Schnider said.

The pound closed at $1.2436 on Tuesday, edging near the two-year trough of $1.2382 it brushed last week. The pound is down more than 13% since the U.K. voted to leave the EU on June 23, 2016. 

Recent sterling lows have been attributed to Johnson's insistence on Brexit.

"In our view, Johnson's desire to push for Brexit, deal or no deal, increases the chance of an early general election and some possibly (of) nasty GBP outcomes," Rodrigo Catril, senior foreign exchange strategist at National Australia Bank, wrote in a recent note.

A reduced probability of an upcoming British election, due to disagreements on Brexit between Parliament and Johnson, could also give the pound a lift, Schnider told CNBC.

However, he noted that it wasn't necessarily the election's outcome that would make a difference to sterling.

What's more important for traders, he said, is the sentiment about whether "the U.K. and European Union jointly try to solve this issue and not depart in an unfriendly way."

A "no-deal" Brexit, which investors are concerned will happen come Halloween, will mean the U.K. leaves the European bloc without reaching a formal deal. That is, there would be no transitional period for the British government to negotiate free trade deals. Many have suggested such a disorderly exit risks damaging the U.K. economy.

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2019-07-24 08:14:28Z
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