LONDON — Boris Johnson, Britain’s brash former foreign secretary, on Tuesday won the contest to succeed Prime Minister Theresa May, with his party handing the job of resolving the country’s three-year Brexit nightmare to one of the architects of the project, and one of the country’s most polarizing politicians.
Mr. Johnson beat Jeremy Hunt, his successor as foreign secretary, in the battle for the leadership of Britain’s governing Conservative Party, winning 66 percent of the postal vote held among its membership. Although the Conservatives’ working majority in Parliament is very small, it appears to be enough to ensure that Mr. Johnson will succeed Mrs. May as prime minister on Wednesday.
He would take office at one of the most critical moments in Britain’s recent history, immediately facing the toughest challenge of his career, to manage his nation’s exit from the European Union in little more than three months. But his policy swerves, lack of attention to detail and contradictory statements leave the country guessing how things will unfold.
“I know that there will be people around the place who will question the wisdom of your decision, and there may even be some people here who still wonder quite what they have done,” Mr. Johnson told the party meeting in London on Tuesday at which the vote results were announced.
While he has a mandate from his party’s dues-paying members, the hard facts that brought down Mrs. May have not changed: deep divisions on Brexit among Conservatives in Parliament, implacable opposition from other parties, and the insistence of European officials that they will make no major concessions.
Mr. Johnson has doubled down lately on Brexit, promising to take Britain out of the European Union by the Oct. 31 deadline “do or die,” if necessary risking the economic dislocation of leaving without any agreement, rather than seek an extension.
“We’re going to get Brexit done on Oct. 31, we’re going to take advantage of all the opportunities that it will bring in a new spirit of can-do, and we’re once again going to believe in ourselves,” he promised on Tuesday. “Like some slumbering giant, we’re going to rise and ping off the guy-ropes of doubt and negativity.”
Mrs. May and Mr. Johnson will visit Queen Elizabeth II at Buckingham Palace on Wednesday, for her assent to the transition. The short journey from Parliament to the palace will be the culmination of a colorful career for Mr. Johnson, a former journalist whose ambition as a child was to become “world king,” who wrote a biography of his hero Winston Churchill, and who has been praised by President Trump.
Mr. Johnson’s rare mix of charismatic bluster and absent-minded air — either charming or maddening, depending on the listener and the moment — and his unusual gift for communicating with voters have made him one of the country’s best-known politicians for years, and carried him to two terms as London mayor.
But his support for Brexit, and his penchant for pronouncements that do not always hold up under scrutiny, have also made him a highly divisive figure.
Parliament rejected Mrs. May’s exit plan three times this year, yet it is also firmly against risking severe disruption and huge economic damage by leaving without any agreement at all.
Turbulence over Brexit has even raised questions about the durability of the United Kingdom itself, prompting renewed talk about possible Scottish independence and a united Ireland.
Mr. Johnson has said that a renegotiated Brexit settlement with the European Union would be the optimal outcome, though it is hard to envision how one could be hammered out and, given the looming summer vacation, approved in Parliament by the end of October. And there is no sign that the European Union is willing to contemplate the wholesale changes that Mr. Johnson has promised his supporters.
Though they will engage with him, other European leaders are hardly enthusiastic about Britain’s new prime minister in waiting. The reaction from Brussels on Tuesday was muted, with the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, tweeting that his team “look forward to working constructively” with Mr. Johnson.
As a reporter in Brussels from 1989 to 1994, Mr. Johnson specialized in a genre of journalism that ridiculed the European Union, playing on a sense of British detachment from the process of European integration.
In 2016, he became the figurehead of the campaign to leave the bloc and helped it to a victory that shocked much of the world. Earlier this year Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, said there was a “special place in hell” reserved for “those who promoted Brexit without even a sketch of a plan of how to carry it out safely.”
With efforts to quit the bloc stalled, Mr. Johnson has promised to ramp up British preparations for a “no deal” Brexit and argues that greater preparedness and political determination will force the European Union to offer a better deal than the one Mrs. May negotiated.
Most analysts think only modest changes are achievable. They do not believe that the bloc will scrap Mr. Johnson’s bugbear — the so-called Irish backstop plan that is designed to keep goods flowing without checks across the border between Northern Ireland and the Irish republic, whatever happens in trade talks.
Taking Britain out of the bloc without an agreement appears to be Mr. Johnson’s backup plan. But Parliament has voted in nonbinding motions against a no-deal exit, and opposition to it is growing.
Several ministers had already announced plans to quit the government, saying they could not support any policy that might lead to Brexit without an agreement. They include the chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, who is expected to play a significant role in trying to stop such an outcome.
Although other nations like Ireland would be very hard hit, one report said that the costs of “no deal” would be four times larger for the British than for the rest of the European Union collectively. That is because exports to the European Union make up around 13 percent of British gross domestic product, while exports the other way account for 2.5 percent of the bloc’s gross domestic product.
Mr. Johnson has not ruled out suspending Parliament to take Britain out of the European Union on Oct. 31, but last week lawmakers approved by 41 votes a measure that would make it harder to bypass Parliament.
Tobias Ellwood, a defense minister, told Sky News that even if Mr. Johnson pushed through a “no deal” Brexit he would have to “crawl back literally moments later” to ask the bloc for emergency arrangements. Amber Rudd, the work and pensions secretary, has also warned of a “collision with reality.”
Tony Blair, a former Labour Party prime minister, said that Mr. Johnson would, on arrival in Downing Street, be warned by officials that the European Union will not renegotiate the Irish backstop and that “no deal” is a huge risk.
“You have a thousand different issues as prime minister to deal with,” Mr. Blair said, “but in the short term he’s got one issue to deal with.”
Mr. Johnson would have to choose whether to back away from his promise to scrap the Irish backstop or try to pursue no deal — an outcome that could, if blocked by lawmakers, force a general election or possibly a second referendum, Mr. Blair said.
“He will face the facts and decide that if you try to engineer no deal without Parliament — against Parliament’s wishes — and without public endorsement, you better hope it works perfectly because if it doesn’t, you’re going to be in all sorts of difficulty for the rest of your time in politics,” Mr. Blair added.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/23/world/europe/boris-johnson-uk-prime-minister.html
2019-07-23 11:31:32Z
52780336314805