https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/07/politics/china-tariff-hike-businesses/index.html
2019-05-07 10:03:00Z
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CNN's Donna Borak contributed reporting to this story.
CNN's Donna Borak contributed reporting to this story.
Meghan Markle will likely head back to work sooner than we think after giving birth to her first child.
The former American actress and Britain’s Prince Harry welcomed a baby boy early Monday morning. A rep from Buckingham Palace said it is up to the couple when will the public learn of the newborn’s name or see his first photo.
WHO WILL BE GODPARENTS TO MEGHAN MARKLE'S ROYAL BABY?
"We are pleased to announce that Their Royal Highnesses The Duke and Duchess of Sussex welcomed their firstborn child in the early morning on May 6th, 2019. Their Royal Highnesses’ son weighs 7lbs. 3oz.," the couple announced via Instagram.
"The Duchess and baby are both healthy and well, and the couple thank members of the public for their shared excitement and support during this very special time in their lives. More details will be shared in the forthcoming days," the statement said.
But one other birthday Markle won’t miss is that of Queen Elizabeth II. The reigning monarch, 93, celebrates two birthdays each year — her actual birthday on April 21 and her official birthday, which is usually observed the second Saturday in June.
While Elizabeth usually spends her actual birthday privately, she is joined by other members of the royal family on her official birthday for the high-profiled Trooping the Colour parade, as well as a public appearance on the balcony of Buckingham Palace.
WHAT WILL MEGHAN MARKLE, PRINCE HARRY NAME THEIR SON?
“She will be back in time for Queen Elizabeth’s birthday, which is only weeks away,” royal filmmaker Nick Bullen told Fox News. “It was also announced she is going to be taking a very short maternity leave because she wants to get back to her charity work as quickly as possible. She’s aware of the media attention she possesses and she’s not afraid to use it.”
Bullen is an executive producer who has been making programs about the British royal family for nearly 20 years and has worked closely with Harry and William’s father, Prince Charles, for eight. Bullen has recently released two new films on True Royalty TV titled "Meghan Markle: Inside the Wardrobe of a Princess" and "Meghan Markle: Inside the Home of a Princess," documenting how the former "Suits" star has made her mark since officially becoming a member of the British royal family.
Bullen said that unlike her late mother-in-law, Princess Diana of Wales, Markle isn’t overwhelmed by the growing media spectacle surrounding her life. In fact, she’s embracing it as part of her new role.
“My understanding from people who know her well and work with her, she’s handling it very well,” Bullen shared. “She knew what she was marrying into. This is not a girl who was unaware of the power of the press. I think unlike a 19-year-old Lady Diana Spencer from all those years ago, who was overwhelmed with the attention, Meghan knew what she was getting into. I think it was possibly bigger than what she realized, but my understanding from people who knew her years ago and people who are working with her now, she’s handling it very well. In fact, she’s enjoying it. This is what she thrives on.”
MEGHAN MARKLE WELCOMES FIRST CHILD: IT'S A BOY!
Bullen said Markle has become so welcoming of the press because it allows her to promote her charities on a global scale. Since becoming an official member of the British royal family, the former “Suits” star has become a patron of four royal organizations, with of her roles taking over from Elizabeth.
In January of this year, Kensington Palace announced Markle will serve as the patron for the National Theatre, as well as the Association of Commonwealth Universities, the Mayhew (animal welfare) and Smart Works, which empowers women and helps them find work.
“I’m told she and Harry have got some big key messages that they want to get out there,” said Bullen. “And the only way to get them out there is using the world’s press to their attention. As much as Harry is pretty anti-press, I think Meghan is enjoying it and ready to harness it. She wants to use it to promote brand Sussex.”
Bullen shared that the one challenge Markle may face is for her husband to embrace the media as much as she has.
MEGHAN MARKLE'S FATHER SPEAKS OUT AFTER BIRTH OF ROYAL BABY
“Harry’s real beef is with the British press,” he explained. “He felt they treated his mother badly. He also believes the British press treated him badly while he was growing up as a teenager in the public eye. I think Harry will not particularly want to work with the British press, but he will work with the foreign press and in particular, the American press. It’s no surprise that his next big TV project is with Oprah Winfrey and Apple. I think you will see him more on the global stage, not so much the domestic stage.”
“I think Harry has to become more welcoming of the press,” Bullen continued. “Because you know what? It ain’t going away. He needs to work with it. I think Meghan will hopefully encourage him in that direction… I think they will start working much more with the international press. They will definitely use social media in a much bigger way.”
Still, Bullen pointed out Markle and Harry will use the power they have over the press on their own terms. The couple recently left Kensington Palace for Frogmore Cottage on Elizabeth’s estate. The move will separate the duo from Harry’s older brother Prince William and his wife, Duchess of Cambridge Kate Middleton. And the move, he insisted, is not a surprising one.
“Harry and Meghan will want to use their home as a really private sanctuary,” he explained. “Meghan’s mind frame is, ‘Let’s get out. Let’s do what we can for Sussex, for Britain and for the causes that we believe in. But when we go home, we are absolutely private.’ That’s why Frogmore, their new home, is perfect for them…. Nobody can get near it. It is surrounded by a big wall. Kensington Palace is pretty open and accessible to people. But Frogmore is private. And I think that’s what Meghan loves. She loves the idea of retreating and hiding away from the world when she can.”
Harry and Markle's royal bundle of joy, born at 5:26 a.m., is seventh in line for the British throne and is Queen Elizabeth II's eighth great-grandchild. Harry is the younger son of Prince Charles, the next in line to the throne.
A beaming Harry told reporters at Windsor Castle on Monday that both mom and baby are doing well.
"I'm very excited to announce that Meghan and myself had a baby boy early this morning, a very healthy boy," the new dad shared. "Mother and baby are doing incredibly well. It's been the most amazing experience I could ever possibly imagine. How any woman does what they do is beyond comprehension but we're both absolutely thrilled and so grateful to all the lovely support."
Fox News' Sasha Savitsky contributed to this report.
President Trump escalated the trade fight with China this week, saying he will steeply increase tariffs on Chinese products this Friday.
But while the White House projects a unified front in favor of wielding tariffs as a weapon against China, it wasn't always this way.
Early in Trump's presidency, close advisers fought bitterly over whether tariffs would help — or devastate — the U.S. economy, those advisers told NPR and the PBS show Frontline.
This story is part of a joint investigation with the PBS series Frontline, which includes an upcoming documentary, Trump's Trade War, scheduled to air May 7 on PBS.
"If you take all the other nastiness on the things like the Paris accord and the [Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement] ... roll it up and put it to the factor of 10, they don't compare to these weekly nasty trade meetings," said Steve Bannon, Trump's former chief strategist.
"These arguments would get quite personal," Bannon added.
And the disagreements weren't just behind closed doors.
"They were having fights in front of the Chinese delegation, which is like a cardinal sin of negotiating," says Susan Thornton, former acting assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs.
As for the president, he has long railed against China and its trade relationship with the United States, calling the U.S.-China trade deficit "the greatest theft in the history of the world." On the campaign trail, he frequently offered tariffs as a way to rebalance trade with China and revive American manufacturing jobs.
"We can't continue to allow China to rape our country, and that's what they're doing," Trump said in one typical speech before an energized crowd at a 2016 campaign rally in Indiana.
Bannon says the message connected viscerally with Trump's core supporters.
"You could tell in sitting in the audience when he started talking about trade, when he started talking about China, these working-class people would lean forward," Bannon says. "No other Republican talked like this."
Still, when Trump was elected, he assembled a team of advisers who were not always in agreement about how to confront China. And the group quickly splintered, deadlocked over whether tariffs would bring China to heel — or send the world's two largest economies into turmoil.
In one camp, which came to be called the nationalists, were pro-tariff advisers like Bannon and Peter Navarro, a hawkish economist. Opposing them were the globalists, including economic adviser Gary Cohn and Army Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, then Trump's national security adviser.
"We agreed on what the fundamental issue was," says Cohn, former president and chief operating officer of Goldman Sachs. "We agreed that the forced technology transfer, the lack of market access, the copyright infringements was all a huge problem. What I think we had different methodologies on is how we were going to solve that problem."
Cohn believed that heavy tariffs would hurt the U.S. — that they would make the Chinese products that Americans buy more expensive and that business growth would slow as a result. He and other globalists wanted to partner with other countries to confront China with powerful alliances.
Bannon and Navarro wanted to use tariffs to force China to the table and end long-standing issues of theft and unfair practices. They believed higher prices on Chinese goods would protect U.S. jobs and bring back manufacturing.
Bannon says there was no room for compromise.
"A couple of times we had blowups. I mean, there was a blowup in the Oval Office," he says. "[Navarro] pulls out one of his charts, which the president loves. The next thing you know, we had this big blowup. We had to exit and go back into the Roosevelt Room."
Cohn accused the nationalists of using glossy charts and pictures to make their case with the president, instead of using actual data.
"From time to time, there were people that tried to use unfootnoted, undocumented facts," Cohn says. "It's my job to get rid of the undocumented, unfootnoted facts and make sure that those don't enter the Oval Office."
Navarro declined NPR and Frontline's request for an interview.
McMaster says everyone in the room was concerned from the beginning about the economic threat China posed.
"The president's eyes were wide open and so were all the members of his cabinet," McMaster says.
But some of the disagreements are still raw. When told what McMaster said about Trump's advisers being clear minded on China, Bannon responded, "That is a total and complete lie."
"I fought that guy every day," Bannon says of McMaster. "I don't want to hear his nonsense now that he realizes he was on the wrong side of history."
By the end of 2017, when Trump and his team had begun trade negotiations with their Chinese counterparts, the discord was seeping well outside the White House.
Thornton, who has served under 10 secretaries of state, says trying to present a strong, unified front to the Chinese when White House advisers were fighting internally — and externally — was one of the hardest assignments of her career.
"It makes it look like your delegation doesn't know what it's doing and that the leader doesn't have sufficient authority to negotiate. But that was happening," Thornton says. "You can't have this team that's fighting with itself. That's a big disadvantage."
Bannon says it doesn't matter if the Chinese knew top officials weren't on the same page. He intended to win.
"We came loaded," he says. "The most intense fights and debates in the White House, OK, were about this issue of tariffs, but tariffs as a proxy to the great economic war with China that we were engaged in."
For Bannon and the other nationalists, the effort paid off. In March 2018, Trump announced tariffs on steel and aluminum, and six months later he imposed additional tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods.
Cohn accepted defeat.
"Did I feel like I had represented the nontariff side of the equation for many people in the White House that didn't want tariffs?" he asked. "I did. I felt like I had done everything I can. It's no different than if you play a sport and you lose a game. If you left it all out on the field, you feel OK. I felt like I had given it my best effort."
But he says the White House globalists aren't the only ones who lost.
"Who I think lost was the United States consumer," he says. "Someone's paying the tariff. Whoever's paying the tariff is the loser. For every dollar of tariff that's collected, it's coming out of disposable income of the United States consumer today."
Cohn left the White House less than a week after the steel tariffs were announced. In the weeks and months that followed, McMaster left his job, and Thornton left her post at the State Department. Bannon had already resigned in 2017, after clashing with other members of Trump's team.
Economists say it's too soon to know the tariffs' impact. So far, the trade deficit with China has only grown. But Bannon says he and other like-minded nationalists were always thinking beyond mere economic indicators.
"I think ultimate success is regime change [in China], and I realize in that regard I'm considered a radical," Bannon says. "I think the goal into China is quite simply ... to break the back of this totalitarian mercantilist economic society."
China’s top trade negotiator is heading to Washington for two days of trade talks, despite President Trump’s threat to impose new tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods.
China’s Commerce Ministry announced on Tuesday that Vice Premier Liu He, one of the country’s leading economic policymakers, would join a delegation of Chinese officials who will hold further trade talks on Thursday and Friday with the Trump administration. Mr. Liu is a close adviser and confidant of President Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, and his participation could improve the changes of striking a deal.
Still, the atmosphere surrounding the trade talks has shifted dramatically since a week ago, when this week’s discussions were seen as a possible last round before the two sides halted a trade war that has made world markets shudder and thrown a damper on the global economic outlook.
Mr. Liu’s participation was thrown in doubt after Mr. Trump announced in two tweets on Sunday that he would raise American tariffs on Friday to 25 percent from 10 percent for $200 billion a year in Chinese goods. The Trump administration cited what it called backpedaling by Chinese officials during talks held last week in Beijing.
Chinese officials, caught by surprise by Mr. Trump’s threat, were initially uncertain whether Mr. Liu should go ahead with his planned Washington visit this week. China’s Foreign Ministry had said on Monday that a Chinese delegation would go to Washington but did not say when or whether Mr. Liu would participate.
Robert E. Lighthizer, the United States trade representative, and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had said at a news conference on Monday in Washington that they expected Chinese officials to come to Washington late this week for trade talks, and Mr. Lighthizer said that he expected Mr. Liu to be among them. But the Chinese government was silent until Tuesday about whether Mr. Liu would make the trip.
The decision that Mr. Liu would participate came after a conference call late Tuesday morning, Beijing time, among senior deputies to Mr. Liu and Mr. Lighthizer, people familiar with the trade talks said. They insisted on anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the talks.
Mr. Mnuchin said on Monday that if the Chinese trade delegation brought a new proposal on Thursday, administration officials would review it and relay it to the president.
Mr. Lighthizer said the administration’s current plan, however, was for the tariff increase to take effect at 12:01 a.m. on Friday.
Before Mr. Trump’s threat on Sunday, the plan had been for Mr. Liu to lead a 100-strong Chinese delegation to Washington for talks that were supposed to begin on Wednesday. The effect of Mr. Trump’s threat was to delay these talks by a day.
Mr. Lighthizer and Mr. Mnuchin said on Monday that when they went to Beijing last week, Chinese officials began retreating from previous offers, and that this continued into last weekend. “There were communications over the weekend that made clear to us that it looked like we were going substantially backwards, and that’s what led to us updating the president,” Mr. Mnuchin said.
The Chinese government has not commented on the administration officials’ accusation that it had rescinded some of its previous offers.
Share prices in China, which had sunk as much as 6 percent on Monday following Mr. Trump’s threat, on Tuesday recovered only a small part of those losses. Brock Silvers, the chief executive of Kaiyuan Capital, a Shanghai-based investment management and advisory firm, said there was little optimism that Mr. Liu could persuade the Trump administration to delay the latest increase in tariffs, at least initially.
”Markets had expected a quick agreement, and now seem shocked by the possibility of a prolonged economic conflict,” he said.
Mr. Lighthizer in September took the necessary legal steps under United States law for raising the tariffs on roughly $200 billion a year in Chinese goods, or nearly two-fifths of Chinese exports to the United States. The original measure last autumn imposed a 10 percent tariff on Sept. 24 and would have increased it to 25 percent on Jan. 1.
Mr. Trump then deferred the Jan. 1 deadline twice as the trade talks seemed to be leading to a deal, before announcing on Sunday that he would go ahead on Friday with the tariff increase.
It’s finally time to forget about all the conspiracy theories about Baby Sussex that continued to manifest out of those seeking desperate media attention. With the royal birth officially announced on the morning of May 6, 2019, here in the states, we now know the royal baby is a Taurus boy, and hopefully not a royal bull. One thing is still up in the air about the baby’s name, though.
As of this writing, Harry and Meghan still haven’t yet decided on the boy’s name, which might open the doors for more conspiracy theories about them creating something unusual.
Let’s look at the truth of why they haven’t done this. Fortunately, there’s plenty of logic to go on in the royal family.
Harry revealed they plan on announcing Baby Sussex’s name in a couple of days. Further, he said they were still deciding on a name. What happens, though, if Harry and Meghan decide to wait even longer than two days? It’s more than understandable why they haven’t cogitated on a name, despite supposedly having the time to.
When you see all the chaos they’ve had to attend to in the last year, it’s a wonder they had time to even think about the simplest of tasks. They’ve probably spent more time dealing with security at Frogmore Cottage (let alone the moving time), plus strategizing how they’re going to outwit an ever-ravenous paparazzi.
While some might think Harry was joking they didn’t have a name chosen, the above reasons and more are likely why. Everyone should give them more time to think about the name considering it’ll be a part of future history.
It’s probably too obvious to quote Shakespeare’s “What in a name?” quote from Romeo & Juliet. As much as Bill Shakespeare understood the importance of names, Harry and Meghan obviously know the name of Baby Sussex will arguably be the most important in the entire Windsor lineage.
There isn’t any hyperbole to the notion Baby Sussex is already the most famous baby in the world. Being a boy also makes it more problematic since there have been numerous famous royals with common male British names today’s royals would like to forget.
For those who were hoping they’d have a girl and name her Diana, any girl names are now tossed in the air. Also, it’s not really possible to provide a male version of the name Diana, unless they went with Daniel as a variation. We’ve even suggested they might use Diana’s last name (Spencer).
Based on scant clues, it’s possible they’ll ponder two royal names usually associated with positive history.
According to some sources, they may just stick with traditional names like the two you see above. When you think of Arthur, you think of King Arthur, a safe bet taking from legend rather than real history. James is also very distinguished thanks to coming from the bible.
Beyond these theories, let’s remember Harry and Meghan clearly want to do things their own way. One clue to why they haven’t named their baby is they’re basically telling us they want independence and want some private time first.
Based on their reported security fortified cottage, they may get that privacy for a short time. Then again, during the time Baby Sussex makes his first appearance for the cameras, the media frenzy is going to erupt like an atomic bomb.
Whatever name Harry and Meghan choose, it’ll likely be the most written name in recent memory. Perhaps it’ll be written even more someday when he reinvents who the royals really are thanks to having parents who want the same.
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In threatening an escalation of a trade war with China over the weekend, President Donald Trump asserted that the tariffs already in place have boosted the economy.
“These payments are partially responsible for our great economic results,” he tweeted on Sunday.
Economists disagree.
“It’s pretty hard to justify the argument that tariffs have strengthened the economy,” said Dan North, chief economist at Euler Hermes North America. “In the first quarter GDP report, there was a very sharp reduction in imports. Of course that makes GDP look bigger, so that would be a result of the tariffs coming into play. However, that is not a way to grow an economy,” he said.
"The economy has done well in spite of the tariffs,” said Michael O. Moore, a professor of economics and international affairs at George Washington University.
Moore said the domestic economy is thriving because of other Trump administration initiatives like deregulation and a big corporate tax cut, along with low interest rates.
“His assertion generally that the Chinese are paying these tariffs is just simply nonsense. It’s a complete misunderstanding of how tariffs work, because tariffs are paid by the importing company and those companies are overwhelmingly American,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “Ultimately, that means this is a tax paid by the American consumers. The idea that it’s somehow something the Chinese pay is wrong.”
The amount of tariffs collected by the U.S. rose in 2018 by $7 billion over the prior year, a very tiny portion of the $3 trillion-plus the Treasury takes in annually. Even if Trump were to carry through on his threat to apply tariffs to all of Chinese imports at rates as high as 25 percent, it wouldn’t be enough money to make much of a difference in the national budget.
“In theory, the government should be earning $32.5 billion a year on top of what they were already earning. That hasn’t happened. If you look at tariff revenue in 2018, it was only about $50 billion, whereas in 2017, it was about $35 billion. It hasn’t gone up by as much as you’d think,” Kirkegaard said.
Conversely, the plunge in markets on Monday morning is one example of how just the threat of a trade war subtracts value, said David Dollar, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
“Every time the president tweets and there’s a suggestion that the trade war is ratcheting up, we generally get a bad reaction from markets around the world,” he said.
“That obviously hurts shareholders and broader confidence, but I think the bigger issue is we haven’t seen during 2018 much pickup in business capital investment,” Kirkegaard said. Even though they got a huge tax break, companies have been hesitant to sink money into plants or facilities.
“Today it’s very difficult to set up new businesses without, to some extent, relying on a global supply chain,” Kirkegaard said, and a trade war would throw into question that crucial access to global markets.
The biggest risk with the current China situation is that of escalation, Moore said, because Trump needs a political win to hold on to critical upper Midwest states in the 2020 election.
“We can’t underestimate what a huge political victory this would be for him, if he could get victories he could trumpet on Chinese trade,” he said. “He’s probably willing to play pretty tough on this… That’s what people are worried about — that it will get out of hand.”
While tariffs have had some impact on China’s gigantic economy, escalation at the scale Trump has threatened would lead to higher prices on imported Chinese goods, forcing Americans to pay more for everything from computers to clothing, and would almost certainly prompt Beijing to retaliate, which would hurt critical exports like soybeans and airplanes.
“China has devalued the currency a bit to compensate, and companies are eating a bit of margin as well, but none of that can go on forever. It’s going to end up coming out of the consumer’s pocketbook at some point,” North said.