U.S.-China Trade Talks to Resume Despite Trump’s Tariff Threat - The New York Times

China’s top trade negotiator is heading to Washington for two days of trade talks, despite President Trump’s threat to impose new tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods.

China’s Commerce Ministry announced on Tuesday that Vice Premier Liu He, one of the country’s leading economic policymakers, would join a delegation of Chinese officials who will hold further trade talks on Thursday and Friday with the Trump administration. Mr. Liu is a close adviser and confidant of President Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, and his participation could improve the changes of striking a deal.

Still, the atmosphere surrounding the trade talks has shifted dramatically since a week ago, when this week’s discussions were seen as a possible last round before the two sides halted a trade war that has made world markets shudder and thrown a damper on the global economic outlook.

Mr. Liu’s participation was thrown in doubt after Mr. Trump announced in two tweets on Sunday that he would raise American tariffs on Friday to 25 percent from 10 percent for $200 billion a year in Chinese goods. The Trump administration cited what it called backpedaling by Chinese officials during talks held last week in Beijing.

Chinese officials, caught by surprise by Mr. Trump’s threat, were initially uncertain whether Mr. Liu should go ahead with his planned Washington visit this week. China’s Foreign Ministry had said on Monday that a Chinese delegation would go to Washington but did not say when or whether Mr. Liu would participate.

Robert E. Lighthizer, the United States trade representative, and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had said at a news conference on Monday in Washington that they expected Chinese officials to come to Washington late this week for trade talks, and Mr. Lighthizer said that he expected Mr. Liu to be among them. But the Chinese government was silent until Tuesday about whether Mr. Liu would make the trip.

The decision that Mr. Liu would participate came after a conference call late Tuesday morning, Beijing time, among senior deputies to Mr. Liu and Mr. Lighthizer, people familiar with the trade talks said. They insisted on anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the talks.

Mr. Mnuchin said on Monday that if the Chinese trade delegation brought a new proposal on Thursday, administration officials would review it and relay it to the president.

Mr. Lighthizer said the administration’s current plan, however, was for the tariff increase to take effect at 12:01 a.m. on Friday.

Before Mr. Trump’s threat on Sunday, the plan had been for Mr. Liu to lead a 100-strong Chinese delegation to Washington for talks that were supposed to begin on Wednesday. The effect of Mr. Trump’s threat was to delay these talks by a day.

Mr. Lighthizer and Mr. Mnuchin said on Monday that when they went to Beijing last week, Chinese officials began retreating from previous offers, and that this continued into last weekend. “There were communications over the weekend that made clear to us that it looked like we were going substantially backwards, and that’s what led to us updating the president,” Mr. Mnuchin said.

The Chinese government has not commented on the administration officials’ accusation that it had rescinded some of its previous offers.

Share prices in China, which had sunk as much as 6 percent on Monday following Mr. Trump’s threat, on Tuesday recovered only a small part of those losses. Brock Silvers, the chief executive of Kaiyuan Capital, a Shanghai-based investment management and advisory firm, said there was little optimism that Mr. Liu could persuade the Trump administration to delay the latest increase in tariffs, at least initially.

”Markets had expected a quick agreement, and now seem shocked by the possibility of a prolonged economic conflict,” he said.

Mr. Lighthizer in September took the necessary legal steps under United States law for raising the tariffs on roughly $200 billion a year in Chinese goods, or nearly two-fifths of Chinese exports to the United States. The original measure last autumn imposed a 10 percent tariff on Sept. 24 and would have increased it to 25 percent on Jan. 1.

Mr. Trump then deferred the Jan. 1 deadline twice as the trade talks seemed to be leading to a deal, before announcing on Sunday that he would go ahead on Friday with the tariff increase.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/07/business/china-us-trade-talks-liu-he-.html

2019-05-07 08:48:45Z
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Why Haven't Prince Harry and Meghan Markle Revealed Their Baby's Name Yet? - The Cheat Sheet

It’s finally time to forget about all the conspiracy theories about Baby Sussex that continued to manifest out of those seeking desperate media attention. With the royal birth officially announced on the morning of May 6, 2019, here in the states, we now know the royal baby is a Taurus boy, and hopefully not a royal bull. One thing is still up in the air about the baby’s name, though.

Prince Harry after Baby Sussex is born | Steve Parsons – WPA Pool/Getty Images

As of this writing, Harry and Meghan still haven’t yet decided on the boy’s name, which might open the doors for more conspiracy theories about them creating something unusual.

Let’s look at the truth of why they haven’t done this. Fortunately, there’s plenty of logic to go on in the royal family.

The name reveal will come in a couple of days

Harry revealed they plan on announcing Baby Sussex’s name in a couple of days. Further, he said they were still deciding on a name. What happens, though, if Harry and Meghan decide to wait even longer than two days? It’s more than understandable why they haven’t cogitated on a name, despite supposedly having the time to.

When you see all the chaos they’ve had to attend to in the last year, it’s a wonder they had time to even think about the simplest of tasks. They’ve probably spent more time dealing with security at Frogmore Cottage (let alone the moving time), plus strategizing how they’re going to outwit an ever-ravenous paparazzi.

While some might think Harry was joking they didn’t have a name chosen, the above reasons and more are likely why. Everyone should give them more time to think about the name considering it’ll be a part of future history.

What’s in a name?

It’s probably too obvious to quote Shakespeare’s “What in a name?” quote from Romeo & Juliet. As much as Bill Shakespeare understood the importance of names, Harry and Meghan obviously know the name of Baby Sussex will arguably be the most important in the entire Windsor lineage.

There isn’t any hyperbole to the notion Baby Sussex is already the most famous baby in the world. Being a boy also makes it more problematic since there have been numerous famous royals with common male British names today’s royals would like to forget.

For those who were hoping they’d have a girl and name her Diana, any girl names are now tossed in the air. Also, it’s not really possible to provide a male version of the name Diana, unless they went with Daniel as a variation. We’ve even suggested they might use Diana’s last name (Spencer).

Based on scant clues, it’s possible they’ll ponder two royal names usually associated with positive history.

Would Arthur or James be too standard?

According to some sources, they may just stick with traditional names like the two you see above. When you think of Arthur, you think of King Arthur, a safe bet taking from legend rather than real history. James is also very distinguished thanks to coming from the bible.

Beyond these theories, let’s remember Harry and Meghan clearly want to do things their own way. One clue to why they haven’t named their baby is they’re basically telling us they want independence and want some private time first.

Based on their reported security fortified cottage, they may get that privacy for a short time. Then again, during the time Baby Sussex makes his first appearance for the cameras, the media frenzy is going to erupt like an atomic bomb.

Whatever name Harry and Meghan choose, it’ll likely be the most written name in recent memory. Perhaps it’ll be written even more someday when he reinvents who the royals really are thanks to having parents who want the same.

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2019-05-07 07:29:26Z
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Despite what Trump says, tariffs aren't boosting the American economy - NBC News

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May 6, 2019, 3:34 PM UTC

By Martha C. White

In threatening an escalation of a trade war with China over the weekend, President Donald Trump asserted that the tariffs already in place have boosted the economy.

“These payments are partially responsible for our great economic results,” he tweeted on Sunday.

Economists disagree.

“It’s pretty hard to justify the argument that tariffs have strengthened the economy,” said Dan North, chief economist at Euler Hermes North America. “In the first quarter GDP report, there was a very sharp reduction in imports. Of course that makes GDP look bigger, so that would be a result of the tariffs coming into play. However, that is not a way to grow an economy,” he said.

"The economy has done well in spite of the tariffs,” said Michael O. Moore, a professor of economics and international affairs at George Washington University.

Moore said the domestic economy is thriving because of other Trump administration initiatives like deregulation and a big corporate tax cut, along with low interest rates.

“His assertion generally that the Chinese are paying these tariffs is just simply nonsense. It’s a complete misunderstanding of how tariffs work, because tariffs are paid by the importing company and those companies are overwhelmingly American,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “Ultimately, that means this is a tax paid by the American consumers. The idea that it’s somehow something the Chinese pay is wrong.”

The amount of tariffs collected by the U.S. rose in 2018 by $7 billion over the prior year, a very tiny portion of the $3 trillion-plus the Treasury takes in annually. Even if Trump were to carry through on his threat to apply tariffs to all of Chinese imports at rates as high as 25 percent, it wouldn’t be enough money to make much of a difference in the national budget.

“In theory, the government should be earning $32.5 billion a year on top of what they were already earning. That hasn’t happened. If you look at tariff revenue in 2018, it was only about $50 billion, whereas in 2017, it was about $35 billion. It hasn’t gone up by as much as you’d think,” Kirkegaard said.

Conversely, the plunge in markets on Monday morning is one example of how just the threat of a trade war subtracts value, said David Dollar, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

“Every time the president tweets and there’s a suggestion that the trade war is ratcheting up, we generally get a bad reaction from markets around the world,” he said.

“That obviously hurts shareholders and broader confidence, but I think the bigger issue is we haven’t seen during 2018 much pickup in business capital investment,” Kirkegaard said. Even though they got a huge tax break, companies have been hesitant to sink money into plants or facilities.

“Today it’s very difficult to set up new businesses without, to some extent, relying on a global supply chain,” Kirkegaard said, and a trade war would throw into question that crucial access to global markets.

The biggest risk with the current China situation is that of escalation, Moore said, because Trump needs a political win to hold on to critical upper Midwest states in the 2020 election.

“We can’t underestimate what a huge political victory this would be for him, if he could get victories he could trumpet on Chinese trade,” he said. “He’s probably willing to play pretty tough on this… That’s what people are worried about — that it will get out of hand.”

While tariffs have had some impact on China’s gigantic economy, escalation at the scale Trump has threatened would lead to higher prices on imported Chinese goods, forcing Americans to pay more for everything from computers to clothing, and would almost certainly prompt Beijing to retaliate, which would hurt critical exports like soybeans and airplanes.

“China has devalued the currency a bit to compensate, and companies are eating a bit of margin as well, but none of that can go on forever. It’s going to end up coming out of the consumer’s pocketbook at some point,” North said.

Martha C. White

Martha C. White is an NBC News contributor who writes about business, finance, and the economy.

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https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/despite-what-trump-says-tariffs-aren-t-boosting-american-economy-n1002331

2019-05-06 15:34:00Z
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Trade turmoil wipes out a chunk of stock rally - CNN

The Dow plunged 450 points on Monday morning after President Donald Trump surprised investors by threatening to impose higher tariffs on China in a late Sunday tweet. Half an hour into trading, the Dow bounced back from its initial low, and was some 320 points lower.

The Dow is still up 13.6% this year, but Monday's plunge wiped out the last three weeks of gains.

The sudden escalation of US-China trade tensions deals a major blow to investors' expectations that Washington and Beijing would reach a trade deal in the near term. Trump's threats raise the risk of a prolonged fight between the world's two largest economies.

Heavy selling knocked the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq (COMP), which dropped 1.6% and 2.2% at the open. Just like the Dow, they retraced their initially losses, and were down 1.1% and 1.3%, respectively, half an hour into trading.

For the year, the S&P remains 17.5% higher; the Nasdaq has gained 21.5%.

The VIX, a market volatility index, jumped to its highest level since January.

"A big underpinning of the rally was this consensus that a trade deal with China would eventually get done," said Michael Block, market strategist at Third Seven Advisors. "This tweet may be a tactic but it has bulls unglued and playing what if."

World markets suffered even sharper losses as investors express concern about how tariffs and trade uncertainty will impact China's already-slowing economy. China's Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) tumbled 5.6%, its worst one-day drop since February 2016, according to Refinitiv. The Shenzhen-based CSI 300 Index closed 5.8% lower. China's yuan dropped 0.8% against the US dollar in offshore trading. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped almost 3%.

"Shocking escalation — even on Trump standards," Chris Krueger, analyst at Cowen Washington Research Group, wrote in a note to clients on Sunday.

On Sunday, Trump threatened on Twitter to increase tariff rates on $200 billion in imports from China to 25%, up from 10% currently. The president said the increase would take effect on Friday.

Investors are unsure if Trump is trying to apply more pressure to Beijing to get a deal done quickly, or if he intends to carry through on his threat, market analysts said. Either way, the threat increases the risk that the trade deal could come undone.

The threat also has negative implications for the outlook of other trade spats, including autos and the passage of the the USMCA deal that is set to replace NAFTA, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.

"His move injects major uncertainty into negotiations, which now face a rising risk of an extended impasse — perhaps even through the US presidential election," Michael Hirson, head of China and Northeast Asia at the Eurasia Group, wrote in a note on Sunday.

China signaled on Monday it still plans to attend upcoming trade talks in Washington.

The Goldman Sachs analysts said that while Trump's announcement "lowers the odds of a successful conclusion" to US-China trade negotiations, the firm thinks there is only a 40% chance that tariffs on China will go up on Friday.

"We believe an agreement is slightly more likely to be reached instead," Goldman Sachs wrote in a note to clients on Sunday.

Still, that represents quite the shift given the fact that US stocks had raced higher in recent months due in part to hopes of a US-China trade deal. The market's rebound was also driven by stronger economic reports and the Federal Reserve slamming the brakes on plans to raise interest rates.

"While the Fed's dovish policy pivot has been the biggest driver of the equity rally to date, future equity performance rests largely on optimism about a potential reacceleration and global economic and earnings growth in the second half," said Alec Young, managing director of global markets research at FTSE Russell. "Without a successful US-China trade breakthrough, it's much harder to be constructive on the global macro outlook."

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs over and over again over the past weeks. All three major indexes have posted double-digit percentage gains this year, recovering sharply from the late 2018 plunge.

Renewed trade tensions could slow down US economic growth by creating uncertainty and raising costs on businesses and households.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/06/investing/stock-market-today-dow-jones-trade-war/index.html

2019-05-06 14:04:00Z
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Dow braces for 500-point drop on return of trade war fears - CNN

Dow futures plunged about 500 points on Monday morning after President Donald Trump surprised investors by threatening to impose higher tariffs on China in a tweet.

The sudden escalation of US-China trade tensions deals a major blow to investors' expectations that Washington and Beijing would reach a trade deal in the near term. Trump's threats raise the risk of a prolonged fight between the world's two largest economies.

Heavy selling knocked the S&P 500 futures down by 1.6%, while Nasdaq futures tumbled more than 2%. The VIX, a market volatility index, jumped to its highest level since January.

"A big underpinning of the rally was this consensus that a trade deal with China would eventually get done," said Michael Block, market strategist at Third Seven Advisors. "This tweet may be a tactic but it has bulls unglued and playing what if."

World markets suffered even sharper losses as investors express concern about how tariffs and trade uncertainty will impact China's already-slowing economy. China's Shanghai Composite Index tumbled 5.6%, its worst one-day drop since February 2016, according to Refinitiv. The Shenzhen-based CSI 300 Index closed 5.8% lower. China's yuan dropped 0.8% against the US dollar in offshore trading. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped almost 3%.

"Shocking escalation — even on Trump standards," Chris Krueger, analyst at Cowen Washington Research Group, wrote in a note to clients on Sunday.

On Sunday, Trump threatened on Twitter to increase tariff rates on $200 billion in imports from China to 25%, up from 10% currently. The president said the increase would take effect on Friday.

Investors are unsure if Trump is trying to apply more pressure to Beijing to get a deal done quickly, or if he intends to carry through on his threat, market analysts said. Either way, the threat increases the risk that the trade deal could come undone.

The threat also has negative implications for the outlook of other trade spats, including autos and the passage of the the USMCA deal that is set to replace NAFTA, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.

"His move injects major uncertainty into negotiations, which now face a rising risk of an extended impasse — perhaps even through the US presidential election," Michael Hirson, head of China and Northeast Asia at the Eurasia Group, wrote in a note on Sunday.

China signaled on Monday it still plans to attend upcoming trade talks in Washington.

Goldman Sachs analysts said that while Trump's announcement "lowers the odds of a successful conclusion" to US-China trade negotiations, the firm thinks there is only a 40% chance that tariffs on China will go up on Friday.

"We believe an agreement is slightly more likely to be reached instead," Goldman Sachs wrote in a note to clients on Sunday.

Still, that represents quite the shift given the fact that US stocks had raced higher in recent months due in part to hopes of a US-China trade deal. The market's rebound was also driven by stronger economic reports and the Federal Reserve slamming the brakes on plans to raise interest rates.

"While the Fed's dovish policy pivot has been the biggest driver of the equity rally to date, future equity performance rests largely on optimism about a potential reacceleration and global economic and earnings growth in the second half," said Alec Young, managing director of global markets research at FTSE Russell. "Without a successful US-China trade breakthrough, it's much harder to be constructive on the global macro outlook."

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs over and over again over the past weeks. All three major indexes have posted double-digit percentage gains this year, recovering sharply from the late 2018 plunge.

Renewed trade tensions could slow down US economic growth by creating uncertainty and raising costs on businesses and households.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/06/investing/stock-market-today-dow-jones-trade-war/index.html

2019-05-06 12:17:00Z
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Brunei won't enforce death-by-stoning punishment for gay sex - New York Post

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia — Brunei’s sultan has said a moratorium on capital punishment is in effect for new Shariah criminal laws including stoning people for gay sex and adultery that sparked an international outcry.

The United Nations has called the laws implemented April 3 “draconian” while the U.S. and several other countries have urged Brunei to halt its plans. Celebrities including George Clooney, Elton John and Ellen DeGeneres have rallied for a boycott of nine hotels in the U.S. and Europe linked to Brunei.

Even before 2014, homosexuality was already punishable in Brunei by a jail term of up to 10 years. The new laws say those found guilty of gay sex can be stoned to death or whipped.

Adulterers risk death by stoning too, while thieves face amputation of a right hand on their first offense and a left foot on their second. The new laws apply to children and foreigners, even if they are not Muslim.

Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah said Sunday in a speech to mark the start of Ramadan that he was aware of the “many questions and misperceptions” over the penalties provided for under new sections of Brunei’s Shariah Penal Code, but stressed that there should be no fear.

Brunei has had a “de facto moratorium” on capital punishment for over two decades and “this will also be applied to cases under the (Shariah laws) which provides a wider scope for remission,” he said. The announcement came as a surprise but appeared aimed at deflecting criticism that Islamic criminal laws are cruel.

“We are conscious of the fact that misperceptions may cause apprehension. However, we believe that once these have been cleared, the merit of the law will be evident,” the sultan said.

Sultan Hassanal said Brunei will also ratify the U.N. Convention Against Torture to show its commitment to human rights.

“Both the common law and the Shariah law aim to ensure peace and harmony of the country. They are also crucial in protecting the morality and decency of the public as well as respecting the privacy of individuals,” he added.

In an immediate reaction, Commonwealth Secretary-General Patricia Scotland on Monday hailed the moratorium on the death penalty but also urged Brunei to revoke other harsh punishments such as amputation and flogging. Brunei is a member of the Commonwealth.

Sultan Hassanal instituted the Shariah Penal Code in 2014 to bolster the influence of Islam in the oil-rich monarchy of around 430,000 people, two-thirds of whom are Muslim. There has been no vocal opposition to the new penalties in Brunei, where the sultan rules as head of state with full executive authority. Public criticism of his policies is extremely rare in the country.

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2019-05-06 10:22:00Z
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Fragile Cease-Fire Takes Hold Between Israel and Gaza After Weekend Attacks - The New York Times

JERUSALEM — A tentative cease-fire between Israel and Palestinian militant groups in Gaza appeared to have taken hold Monday morning, bringing a short but deadly bout of cross-border fighting to an end as abruptly as it had started. At least 22 Palestinians, including militants and children, were killed in Gaza over the weekend, and four Israeli civilians died in the fighting.

Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the Gaza groups that fired about 600 projectiles at southern Israel on Saturday and Sunday, had indicated a readiness to restore the fragile truce that went into effect nearly five years ago but has been interrupted repeatedly by violence. A Hamas-run television channel reported in the early hours of Monday that a new cease-fire had been reached, and would come into effect at 4:30 a.m.

According to Arab news reports, the understanding was brokered by Egypt and the United Nations, and includes measures to ease the acute economic crisis in the impoverished Gaza Strip, home to two million people. It came with the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

At least nine militants and as many Palestinian civilians, including two children, were killed by Israeli forces on Sunday alone, according to Health Ministry officials in the Hamas-run coastal territory. It was the worst violence between the two sides since a 50-day war in 2014.

The Israeli military said it had struck 350 militant targets over the weekend. It resumed wartime tactics that included the targeted assassination of individuals and bombing multistory buildings it said were used for military purposes.

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The remains of a building in Gaza City after it was hit by Israeli air strikes on Sunday.CreditMahmud Hams/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The Israeli government did not overtly confirm a renewed cease-fire, as is customary in such situations, with officials reluctant to go public about understandings or agreements with groups that Israel classifies as terrorist organizations.

But in an acknowledgment of the restoration of calm, the Israeli military announced the lifting, from 7 a.m., of all restrictions on public gatherings in communities within a 25-mile radius of Gaza. Roads in the vicinity of the border and most schools reopened.

Then, in a statement issued around 11 a.m., Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alluded to the end of this round of battle, if not the general state of war.

“Over the last two days, we struck Hamas and Islamic Jihad with great force,” he said. “We hit over 350 targets. We struck at terrorist leaders and operatives and we destroyed terrorist buildings. The campaign is not over, and it demands patience and sagacity. We are prepared to continue. The goal has been — and remains — ensuring quiet and security for the residents of the south. I send condolences to the families and best wishes for recovery to the wounded.”

Israeli commentators said that Israel had also been eager to cut short the fighting, with Memorial Day and Independence Day celebrations coming this week, and a stream of international singers arriving to compete in the Eurovision song contest in Tel Aviv this month. In hosting the international contest, Israel intends to showcase itself as a tourist destination.

The exact terms of the cease-fire were not publicized, but in the past they have included measures like an extension of the fishing zone off the Gaza coast in the Mediterranean waters controlled by Israel, assurances for the smooth transfer of Qatari money into the territory and other measures to ease the blockade imposed by Israel, with Egypt’s help. Both countries restrict the movement of people and goods in and out of the enclave, citing security grounds and the need to stop weapons smuggling.

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A building in the southern Israeli city of Ashdod that was damaged by a rocket strike from the Gaza Strip.CreditJack Guez/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

This latest round of fighting appeared to have been set off by events on Friday, when two Israeli soldiers were wounded by a Gaza sniper and four Palestinians were killed.

Two of the Palestinians were shot by Israeli forces during weekly protest along the fence dividing the territory from Israel, according to Gaza health officials. The others, who were identified as Hamas militants, were killed in an Israeli airstrike in retaliation for the sniper attack. Starting Saturday morning, Hamas and Islamic Jihad unleashed an unusually heavy barrage of rockets and mortar shells into southern Israel.

Perennially simmering tensions along the border have burst into at least eight brief but increasingly fierce rounds of fighting over the past year, sometimes lasting little more than a day. These exchanges appear to have replaced the broader wars that occurred in 2008, 2009, 2012 and 2014, with neither side showing any appetite now for a full-scale showdown.

Mr. Netanyahu, who also serves as Israel’s defense minister, is in the process of forming a new, right-wing governing coalition after his party’s victory in the general elections in April.

Opposition leaders from the political center and left have repeatedly criticized him as lacking a more decisive and strategic policy toward Gaza.

Yair Lapid, of the centrist Blue and White party, accused Mr. Netanyahu of “a complete surrender” to Hamas.

Mr. Netanyahu was also criticized by a senior politician in his own Likud party.

“The cease-fire, given the circumstances under which it was reached, lacks achievements for Israel,” the politician, Gidon Saar, who is considered a rival for the party leadership, wrote on Twitter. “The time ranges between the rounds of violent attacks on Israel and its citizens are getting shorter, and the terrorist organizations in Gaza use the periods in between to get stronger. The campaign has not been prevented, but postponed.”

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2019-05-06 11:04:40Z
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