Selasa, 09 April 2019

Trump Is Begging for a Fight With Iran - Slate

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Donald Trump.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran on Feb. 8. President Donald Trump in Las Vegas on Saturday.

Photo illustration by Slate. Photos by Iran’s Religious Leader Press Office/Handout/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images and Ethan Miller/Getty Images.

President Donald Trump’s designation of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps as a “foreign terrorist organization” is likely to spark more violence in the region—and may be intended to do so.

In one sense, the move—the latest escalation in Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against the Islamic republic—will have only modest impact. The military unit (often abbreviated as the IRGC) was already sanctioned by the Treasury Department, in 2017, for its material support of terrorist groups, such as Hamas and Hezbollah. The Iranian government as a whole has been on the State Department’s list of “state sponsors of terrorism,” which carries economic penalties, since 1984. (There are, today, only three other states on the list: Sudan, Syria, and North Korea.)

The new designation, which was announced Monday and will take effect April 15, steps up the pressure in two ways: It imposes criminal penalties on anyone who knowingly does business with the IRGC (which controls about 20 percent of Iran’s economy), and it bars members of the IRGC and its affiliates—who number roughly 11 million—from travel to the United States.

But the move also crosses a boldly drawn line. It marks the first time the United States has designated a branch of a foreign government’s military as a terrorist organization. The IRGC is many things: a local economic powerhouse, a means of assisting and training Iranian allies and militias in the region; but it is also a praetorian guard and special forces unit of the Iranian military.

For the United States and many other countries, the longer-term potential for blowback is considerable.

In the bureaucratic debates leading up to Monday’s announcement, Trump’s move was reportedly opposed by Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and by senior civilian officials in the Pentagon, for two reasons: It could harm American allies, and it could endanger American troops.

For some allies, the decision could have an immediate impact. Although the IRGC supports militias such as Hamas and Hezbollah, it also helps the Shiite-led government in Iraq fight off Sunni militias such as al-Qaida and ISIS. To designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization would make Iraq—an ally of the United States—a state sponsor of terrorism.

For the United States and many other countries, the longer-term potential for blowback is considerable. Many of the world’s special forces, air forces, and intelligence series—including those of the United States and its allies—commit acts that kill or terrorize civilians, sometimes deliberately. Trump’s move sets a precedent by which the victims of those acts, or their allies, might declare the attackers to be terrorist organizations.

In fact, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has already responded by labeling U.S. Central Command—which controls all U.S. military operations in the Middle East and Central Asia—a terrorist organization. Iran has no way to impose economic sanctions on the United States, but its militias and their allies might now regard any of the command’s 200,000 personnel as legitimate targets in an attack—just as the U.S. military does for members of organizations that American leaders have labeled “terrorists.”

Presumably Trump was briefed on the severe risks, and the modest benefits, of his decision. So why did he go ahead and make it anyway? There were, I suspect, three converging motives.

First, and perhaps above all, Trump did it to help his friend, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, win his tight reelection contest this week. The timing was too close to be mere coincidence. Netanyahu, in fact, sent Trump a letter thanking him for the decision. Interestingly, according to the New York Times, in the Hebrew version of the letter—which Netanyahu released to the public—he thanked Trump “for accepting another important request of mine.” In the English version, this passage was omitted. Was Netanyahu falsely taking credit for the decision to boost his chances of reelection? Or was the idea truly his, and by deleting the reference, was he shielding Trump from being seen, by American voters, as his puppet?

Second, ever since taking office, Trump has been hellbent on hurting the Iranian government—one of vanishingly few authoritarian regimes whose leaders he doesn’t like—in as many ways as he can, and this is but the latest move in that campaign.

Third, it is worth noting who was advocating this move inside the administration—Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton. Pompeo has spoken many times about encouraging the Iranian people to rise up against their oppressive leaders. Bolton, when he was a think-tank neocon and a Fox News pundit, spoke out, even more frequently and avidly, for a policy of regime change in Iran.

Bolton may be hoping that Trump’s designation will provoke the IRGC to attack American service members in the region—because that would provide an opening to attack Iran.

Whatever one makes of the Iranian government or the IRGC, it is hard to see how this stratagem—Trump’s designation or Bolton’s exploitation of its consequences—leads to a good place. If the regime in Tehran were somehow toppled, it is very unlikely that Western-leaning democrats would rise up to take their place—especially if the ouster was traced to Americans. The successors would much more likely be the commanders of the IRGC. And if Trump’s designation managed in the meantime to weaken the IRGC, the new leaders would likely be the shrewder—and perhaps even more militant—officers from within its ranks. Either that, or anarchy would erupt. And, in a country twice as populous and three times as large as Iraq, with a history of mistrusting Western intruders, the chance is nil that U.S. interests will come out ahead in the ensuing struggle for power and resources.

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https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/04/iran-revolutionary-guards-trump-terrorist-organization-designation.html

2019-04-09 20:44:00Z
52780264753024

Israel Elections 2019: Live Updates - The New York Times

• Israelis are voting Tuesday in parliamentary elections that could keep Benjamin Netanyahu, the polarizing, right-wing prime minister, in power, or turn control over to his main rival, Benny Gantz, a newcomer to electoral politics who is seen as a centrist. At stake is the future of both Israel and the Palestinian territories.

[Who is Benny Gantz?]

• The first indication of how the election went is expected after 3 p.m. Eastern Time, when voting ends in Israel and exit polls are released. Early analysis showed Arab voters headed for a historically low turnout.

• If he wins a fourth consecutive term, Mr. Netanyahu, 69, could make history in a number of ways: In July, he would become Israel’s longest-serving prime minister; he has vowed to annex parts of the West Bank, reversing half a century of policy and setting back prospects for a Palestinian state; and he could also become the first sitting prime minister to be indicted.

• While Mr. Netanyahu has appealed primarily to the right, Mr. Gantz, 59, a retired lieutenant general and former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, has reached out for allies across the political spectrum. He has sought to make Mr. Netanyahu’s expected indictment on corruption charges the main issue.

Image
Turnout in Arab areas of Israel appeared to be headed for a historic low.CreditAtef Safadi/EPA, via Shutterstock

Political analysts said the turnout in Arab areas of Israel, where citizens have become disillusioned with Israeli politics and with their own politicians, appeared to be headed for a historic low.

With turnout lagging and the fate of the election potentially swinging on one or two seats in a coalition, every party was pleading with its voters to race to the polls before it was too late.

But among Arab voters, where a boycott movement appeared to be having a strong effect, the haranguing was especially intense.

“The right is planning to crush the Arab parties, it wants to erase us off the political arena,” Mtanes Shehadeh, a spokesman for the struggling Ram-Balad party, wrote in a WhatsApp message to supporters. “This is Netanyahu’s dream.”

In Tamra, muezzins called to the faithful from a mosque: “ Go out to vote and support the Arab parties. They are in danger.”

Tamar Zandberg, leader of the left-wing Meretz party, which was in danger of falling short of the threshold to enter Parliament and enjoyed sizable Arab support, raced to Kfar Kassem, another populous Arab town.

“We are continuing with all our strength, going from house to house and calling people out to vote,” said Aymen Odeh, leader of Hadash-Taal, one of two predominantly Arab parties vying for seats in Parliament. “Our nightmare is the prime minister’s fantasy,” he added. “A Knesset without Arab representation is suddenly looking like a realistic option. I know gevalt is in Yiddish, but the concern for our children’s future is universal.”

A boycott campaign wasn’t the only reason for poor turnout among Arab voters. Early Tuesday, Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud Party acknowledged sending more than 1,000 activists with cameras into polling places in Arab towns.

At least some of the Likud observers concealed the cameras, as online videos showed. Likud said the move was aimed at capturing evidence of any irregularities. But the Arab party Hadash-Ta’al filed a complaint, calling it voter intimidation, according to Israeli news reports.

Just before 9 p.m., the left-wing party Meretz, which is counting on Arab support to clear the threshold to be seated in Parliament, appealed to elections officials to keep the polls open in Arab villages an extra hour to allow in any voters who had initially been scared off by the cameras.

Voters cast ballots for parties, not candidates. Thirty-nine parties are participating. The percentage of the vote determines a party’s number of seats in the Knesset, or Parliament. Any party needs at least 3.25 percent of the vote for a seat.

Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud party and Mr. Gantz’s Blue and White alliance are expected to gain more seats than any other group. But each will fall far short of achieving a 61-seat majority on its own, meaning that a new government will almost certainly be formed by a multiparty coalition.

[See our guide to the Israeli elections.]

Members of Israel’s military were allowed to vote up to 72 hours in advance. The rest of the country’s 6.3 million eligible voters can cast ballots at more than 10,700 polling stations across the country, including hospitals and prisons, between 7 a.m. and 10 p.m. (midnight to 3 p.m. Eastern).

Except for diplomats posted abroad, Israeli citizens cannot cast absentee ballots. Those who wish to vote must travel to Israel.

Image
Benny Gantz, the Blue and White leader, after casting his vote in Rosh Ha’Ayin, Israel.CreditDan Balilty for The New York Times

Likud wins the most seats. Mr. Netanyahu’s party might be able to reach a majority with the help of smaller right-wing parties.

Blue and White wins the most seats. Mr. Gantz and his partners might be able to reach a majority with a combination of smaller parties on the left and right.

Unity government of Likud plus Blue and White. While Mr. Gantz has vowed never to serve in a government led by Mr. Netanyahu, there has been speculation that their parties might negotiate to form a unity government if neither can attain the sufficient number of seats. Such a possibility would increase if some smaller parties needed by Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gantz fail to make the 3.25 percent threshold.

Any party that wins at least 3.25 percent of the vote gets at least three seats in Parliament, but if parties don’t pass that threshold — and many smaller parties do not — their votes are discarded.

Image
In Jerusalem, the Jewish settlement of Neve Yaakov, in the foreground, is separated from the Palestinian area of al-Ram by a barrier.CreditAhmad Gharabli/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Mr. Netanyahu has shown a penchant for appealing to anti-Arab racism in the finales of Israeli elections, aimed at whipping up the extreme right to fend off challengers and protect his parliamentary majority.

During the 2015 election, Mr. Netanyahu beseeched right-wing voters to cast ballots after a coalition of Israeli Arab parties announced that early voter participation by its supporters had tripled. He posted a video on his Facebook page expressing alarm that Israeli Arabs were “being bused to the polling stations in droves” by left-wing groups.

In what critics are calling a similar appeal to the right in this election, Mr. Netanyahu unexpectedly promised to begin extending Israeli sovereignty over the occupied West Bank if re-elected. The move would almost certainly doom a two-state solution.

[In seeking re-election, Mr. Netanyahu put the West Bank on the ballot.]

Late Monday, he even trotted out his American pollster to attest to his contention that the small number of Likud voters who fail to cast their ballots on Tuesday could cost him the election.

Israelis have a term for Mr. Netanyahu’s late surprises: the “gevalt campaign,” a reference to the Yiddish term for incredulity.

At lunchtime in Beit Shemesh, west of Jerusalem, Snir Moshe, 25, was still mulling his options.

“On the one hand it’s a country of Jews,” he said, expressing fear that a vote for Mr. Gantz’s centrist Blue and White party could lead to the removal of West Bank settlements territorial withdrawals.

On the other hand, said Mr. Moshe, who voted for Mr. Netanyahu’s conservative Likud party in 2015, “Blue and White could make social change, economic change. So I have a few more hours to decide.”

There was no reliable data on last-minute waverers, but Mr. Moshe was hardly alone.

Some deliberated between Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gantz. Others deliberated between a strategic vote for a large party or an ideological vote for a smaller one, but in a neck-and-neck race, many felt they did not have the luxury of voting for a boutique party.

A Hebrew news website, Mako, offered help with an app that quizzed undecided voters about their positions and then offered political guidance.

Miriam Alarkry, 78, had been wavering between Likud and the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, which she usually voted for. In the end she went with Likud, she said, “because it’s the government.”

By 6 p.m. Tuesday, around 52 percent of eligible voters had cast their ballot, with four hours to go before polls closed. Voter turnout was slightly lower than the 2015 election, in which 54.6 percent of eligible voters had cast their ballot by that hour.

Taking advantage of the public holiday, many Israelis were out enjoying the sunshine, packing beaches and national parks. Mr. Netanyahu turned up at the seaside in Netanya and called on his supporters to go vote and swim later. Some said they would do so after sundown.

One Tel Aviv eatery was offering Election Day specials: a “hamburgantz” dedicated to Benny Gantz, served with Gouda cheese and a fried egg; and “Bibi cigars” — phyllo pastry rolls stuffed with lamb — a reference to the cigars that the police say Mr. Netanyahu accepted as gifts from wealthy businessmen who sought official favors.

Image
The last elections in Gaza were in 2006.CreditShawn Baldwin for The New York Times

Mohammad al-Saptie, 28, has never voted. He envied Israel’s democratic system, he said in Gaza City, as people a few miles away cast their ballots for the fifth time since the last election in Gaza, in 2006.

Mr. al-Saptie, a deliveryman, daydreamed aloud about what a free election might mean for Gaza and how he might choose a party or a candidate to support.

He thought about his 20-month-old daughter, Warda, and about the three wars he has lived through — not counting the 2007 civil war in which the militant group Hamas seized control in Gaza.

“I would vote for a government that can negotiate, make peace and reach a solution with Israel,” Mr. al-Saptie said, “because we do not want blood, murder, death and destruction.”

Like many Palestinians here, Mr. al-Saptie said he was frustrated by Hamas, whose takeover precipitated the Israeli blockade of Gaza that continues to this day. He said he wished Gaza’s armed factions could be brought under the control of leaders with stronger public support.

His aspirations, he said, are simple: “Security, safety and jobs. We do not want more than this.”

In the West Bank, Palestinian officials were following the election closely but there was no shortage of cynicism.

“The two camps are competing with each other over how much they will take out of our lands and how brutal they should be with us,” said Nabil Shaath, a senior Palestinian official, in a telephone interview.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/09/world/middleeast/israel-elections-netanyahu-gantz.html

2019-04-09 18:33:45Z
52780261626840

Israel Elections 2019: Live Updates - The New York Times

• Israelis are voting Tuesday in parliamentary elections that could keep Benjamin Netanyahu, the polarizing, right-wing prime minister, in power, or turn control over to his main rival, Benny Gantz, a newcomer to electoral politics who is seen as a centrist. At stake is the future of both Israel and the Palestinian territories.

[Who is Benny Gantz?]

• The first indication of how the election went is expected after 3 p.m. Eastern Time, when voting ends in Israel and exit polls are released. Early analysis showed Arab voters headed for a historically low turnout.

• If he wins a fourth consecutive term, Mr. Netanyahu, 69, could make history in a number of ways: In July, he would become Israel’s longest-serving prime minister; he has vowed to annex parts of the West Bank, reversing half a century of policy and setting back prospects for a Palestinian state; and he could also become the first sitting prime minister to be indicted.

• While Mr. Netanyahu has appealed primarily to the right, Mr. Gantz, 59, a retired lieutenant general and former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, has reached out for allies across the political spectrum. He has sought to make Mr. Netanyahu’s expected indictment on corruption charges the main issue.

Image
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a polling station in Jerusalem. He could make history if he wins a fourth consecutive term.CreditAriel Schalit/Associated Press

Political analysts said the turnout in Arab areas of Israel, where citizens have become disillusioned with Israeli politics and with their own politicians, appeared to be headed for a historic low.

With turnout lagging and the fate of the election potentially swinging on one or two seats in a coalition, every party was pleading with its voters to race to the polls before it was too late.

But among Arab voters, where a boycott movement appeared to be having a strong effect, the haranguing was especially intense.

“The right is planning to crush the Arab parties, it wants to erase us off the political arena,” Mtanes Shehadeh, a spokesman for the struggling Ram-Balad party, wrote in a WhatsApp message to supporters. “This is Netanyahu’s dream.”

In Tamra, muezzins called to the faithful from a mosque: “ Go out to vote and support the Arab parties. They are in danger.”

Tamar Zandberg, leader of the left-wing Meretz party, which was in danger of falling short of the threshold to enter Parliament and enjoyed sizable Arab support, raced to Kfar Kassem, another populous Arab town.

“We are continuing with all our strength, going from house to house and calling people out to vote,” said Aymen Odeh, leader of Hadash-Taal, one of two predominantly Arab parties vying for seats in Parliament. “Our nightmare is the prime minister’s fantasy,” he added. “A Knesset without Arab representation is suddenly looking like a realistic option. I know gevalt is in Yiddish, but the concern for our children’s future is universal.”

Voters cast ballots for parties, not candidates. Thirty-nine parties are participating. The percentage of the vote determines a party’s number of seats in the Knesset, or Parliament. Any party needs at least 3.25 percent of the vote for a seat.

Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud party and Mr. Gantz’s Blue and White alliance are expected to gain more seats than any other group. But each will fall far short of achieving a 61-seat majority on its own, meaning that a new government will almost certainly be formed by a multiparty coalition.

[See our guide to the Israeli elections.]

Members of Israel’s military were allowed to vote up to 72 hours in advance. The rest of the country’s 6.3 million eligible voters can cast ballots at more than 10,700 polling stations across the country, including hospitals and prisons, between 7 a.m. and 10 p.m. (midnight to 3 p.m. Eastern).

Except for diplomats posted abroad, Israeli citizens cannot cast absentee ballots. Those who wish to vote must travel to Israel.

Image
Benny Gantz, the Blue and White leader, after casting his vote in Rosh Ha’Ayin, Israel.CreditDan Balilty for The New York Times

Likud wins the most seats. Mr. Netanyahu’s party might be able to reach a majority with the help of smaller right-wing parties.

Blue and White wins the most seats. Mr. Gantz and his partners might be able to reach a majority with a combination of smaller parties on the left and right.

Unity government of Likud plus Blue and White. While Mr. Gantz has vowed never to serve in a government led by Mr. Netanyahu, there has been speculation that their parties might negotiate to form a unity government if neither can attain the sufficient number of seats. Such a possibility would increase if some smaller parties needed by Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gantz fail to make the 3.25 percent threshold.

Any party that wins at least 3.25 percent of the vote gets at least three seats in Parliament, but if parties don’t pass that threshold — and many smaller parties do not — their votes are discarded.

Image
In Jerusalem, the Jewish settlement of Neve Yaakov, in the foreground, is separated from the Palestinian area of al-Ram by a barrier.CreditAhmad Gharabli/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Mr. Netanyahu has shown a penchant for appealing to anti-Arab racism in the finales of Israeli elections, aimed at whipping up the extreme right to fend off challengers and protect his parliamentary majority.

During the 2015 election, Mr. Netanyahu beseeched right-wing voters to cast ballots after a coalition of Israeli Arab parties announced that early voter participation by its supporters had tripled. He posted a video on his Facebook page expressing alarm that Israeli Arabs were “being bused to the polling stations in droves” by left-wing groups.

In what critics are calling a similar appeal to the right in this election, Mr. Netanyahu unexpectedly promised to begin extending Israeli sovereignty over the occupied West Bank if re-elected. The move would almost certainly doom a two-state solution.

[In seeking re-election, Mr. Netanyahu put the West Bank on the ballot.]

Late Monday, he even trotted out his American pollster to attest to his contention that the small number of Likud voters who fail to cast their ballots on Tuesday could cost him the election.

Israelis have a term for Mr. Netanyahu’s late surprises: the “gevalt campaign,” a reference to the Yiddish term for incredulity.

At lunchtime in Beit Shemesh, west of Jerusalem, Snir Moshe, 25, was still mulling his options.

“On the one hand it’s a country of Jews,” he said, expressing fear that a vote for Mr. Gantz’s centrist Blue and White party could lead to the removal of West Bank settlements territorial withdrawals.

On the other hand, said Mr. Moshe, who voted for Mr. Netanyahu’s conservative Likud party in 2015, “Blue and White could make social change, economic change. So I have a few more hours to decide.”

There was no reliable data on last-minute waverers, but Mr. Moshe was hardly alone.

Some deliberated between Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gantz. Others deliberated between a strategic vote for a large party or an ideological vote for a smaller one, but in a neck-and-neck race, many felt they did not have the luxury of voting for a boutique party.

A Hebrew news website, Mako, offered help with an app that quizzed undecided voters about their positions and then offered political guidance.

Miriam Alarkry, 78, had been wavering between Likud and the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, which she usually voted for. In the end she went with Likud, she said, “because it’s the government.”

By 6 p.m. Tuesday, around 52 percent of eligible voters had cast their ballot, with four hours to go before polls closed. Voter turnout was slightly lower than the 2015 election, in which 54.6 percent of eligible voters had cast their ballot by that hour.

Taking advantage of the public holiday, many Israelis were out enjoying the sunshine, packing beaches and national parks. Mr. Netanyahu turned up at the seaside in Netanya and called on his supporters to go vote and swim later. Some said they would do so after sundown.

One Tel Aviv eatery was offering Election Day specials: a “hamburgantz” dedicated to Benny Gantz, served with Gouda cheese and a fried egg; and “Bibi cigars” — phyllo pastry rolls stuffed with lamb — a reference to the cigars that the police say Mr. Netanyahu accepted as gifts from wealthy businessmen who sought official favors.

Image
President Reuven Rivlin is tasked with formally asking one of the party leaders to form a government.CreditAbir Sultan/EPA, via Shutterstock

President Reuven Rivlin is responsible for formally asking one of the party leaders to form a government based on the outcome of the vote and strength of the possible coalitions. Even if Mr. Gantz’s alliance is slightly ahead of Mr. Netanyahu’s, the president could still ask Mr. Netanyahu to form a government if Likud’s likely allies would give him a stronger coalition.

This happened in the 2009 election, when Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud had 27 seats but the rival Kadima party had 28. The Kadima leader, Tzipi Livni, could not form a coalition, but Mr. Netanyahu could. He has been prime minister ever since.

It is less certain what Mr. Rivlin would do if Mr. Netanyahu had a numerical advantage in forming a coalition but Likud itself trailed Mr. Gantz’s alliance by four or five seats. Mr. Gantz’s supporters argued that Mr. Rivlin would feel pressure in that case to acknowledge the people’s most popular choice and allow Mr. Gantz the chance to form a government.

Image
The last elections in Gaza were in 2006.CreditShawn Baldwin for The New York Times

Mohammad al-Saptie, 28, has never voted. He envied Israel’s democratic system, he said in Gaza City, as people a few miles away cast their ballots for the fifth time since the last election in Gaza, in 2006.

Mr. al-Saptie, a deliveryman, daydreamed aloud about what a free election might mean for Gaza and how he might choose a party or a candidate to support.

He thought about his 20-month-old daughter, Warda, and about the three wars he has lived through — not counting the 2007 civil war in which the militant group Hamas, which won the 2006 Palestinian elections but had been prevented from taking power by the rival Fatah faction, seized control in Gaza.

“I would vote for a government that can negotiate, make peace and reach a solution with Israel,” Mr. al-Saptie said, “because we do not want blood, murder, death and destruction.”

Like many Palestinians here, Mr. al-Saptie said he was frustrated by Hamas, whose takeover precipitated the Israeli blockade of Gaza that continues to this day. He said he wished Gaza’s various armed factions could be brought under the control of leaders with stronger public support.

“The differences among the people and among leaders are great, and there is hatred,” he said.

His aspirations, he said, are simple: “Security, safety and jobs. We do not want more than this.”

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/09/world/middleeast/israel-elections-netanyahu-gantz.html

2019-04-09 16:34:21Z
52780261626840

Israel Elections 2019: Live Updates - The New York Times

• Israelis are voting Tuesday in parliamentary elections that could keep Benjamin Netanyahu, the polarizing, right-wing prime minister, in power, or turn control over to his main rival, Benny Gantz, a newcomer to electoral politics who is seen as a centrist. At stake is the future of both Israel and the Palestinian territories.

[Who is Benny Gantz?]

• The first indication of how the election went is expected after 3 p.m. Eastern Time, when voting ends in Israel and exit polls are released. Early analysis showed Arab voters headed for a historically low turnout.

• If he wins a fourth consecutive term, Mr. Netanyahu, 69, could make history in a number of ways: In July, he would become Israel’s longest-serving prime minister; he has vowed to annex parts of the West Bank, reversing half a century of policy and setting back prospects for a Palestinian state; and he could also become the first sitting prime minister to be indicted.

• While Mr. Netanyahu has appealed primarily to the right, Mr. Gantz, 59, a retired lieutenant general and former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, has reached out for allies across the political spectrum. He has sought to make Mr. Netanyahu’s expected indictment on corruption charges the main issue.

Image
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a polling station in Jerusalem. He could make history if he wins a fourth consecutive term.CreditAriel Schalit/Associated Press

Political analysts said the turnout in Arab areas of Israel, where citizens have become disillusioned with Israeli politics and with their own politicians, appeared to be headed for a historic low.

With turnout lagging and the fate of the election potentially swinging on one or two seats in a coalition, every party was pleading with its voters to race to the polls before it was too late.

But among Arab voters, where a boycott movement appeared to be having a strong effect, the haranguing was especially intense.

“The right is planning to crush the Arab parties, it wants to erase us off the political arena,” Mtanes Shehadeh, a spokesman for the struggling Ram-Balad party, wrote in a WhatsApp message to supporters. “This is Netanyahu’s dream.”

In Tamra, muezzins called to the faithful from a mosque: “ Go out to vote and support the Arab parties. They are in danger.”

Tamar Zandberg, leader of the left-wing Meretz party, which was in danger of falling short of the threshold to enter Parliament and enjoyed sizable Arab support, raced to Kfar Kassem, another populous Arab town.

“We are continuing with all our strength, going from house to house and calling people out to vote,” said Aymen Odeh, leader of Hadash-Taal, one of two predominantly Arab parties vying for seats in Parliament. “Our nightmare is the prime minister’s fantasy,” he added. “A Knesset without Arab representation is suddenly looking like a realistic option. I know gevalt is in Yiddish, but the concern for our children’s future is universal.”

Voters cast ballots for parties, not candidates. Thirty-nine parties are participating. The percentage of the vote determines a party’s number of seats in the Knesset, or Parliament. Any party needs at least 3.25 percent of the vote for a seat.

Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud party and Mr. Gantz’s Blue and White alliance are expected to gain more seats than any other group. But each will fall far short of achieving a 61-seat majority on its own, meaning that a new government will almost certainly be formed by a multiparty coalition.

[See our guide to the Israeli elections.]

Members of Israel’s military were allowed to vote up to 72 hours in advance. The rest of the country’s 6.3 million eligible voters can cast ballots at more than 10,700 polling stations across the country, including hospitals and prisons, between 7 a.m. and 10 p.m. (midnight to 3 p.m. Eastern).

Except for diplomats posted abroad, Israeli citizens cannot cast absentee ballots. Those who wish to vote must travel to Israel.

Image
Benny Gantz, the Blue and White leader, after casting his vote in Rosh Ha’Ayin, Israel.CreditDan Balilty for The New York Times

Likud wins the most seats. Mr. Netanyahu’s party might be able to reach a majority with the help of smaller right-wing parties.

Blue and White wins the most seats. Mr. Gantz and his partners might be able to reach a majority with a combination of smaller parties on the left and right.

Unity government of Likud plus Blue and White. While Mr. Gantz has vowed never to serve in a government led by Mr. Netanyahu, there has been speculation that their parties might negotiate to form a unity government if neither can attain the sufficient number of seats. Such a possibility would increase if some smaller parties needed by Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gantz fail to make the 3.25 percent threshold.

Any party that wins at least 3.25 percent of the vote gets at least three seats in Parliament, but if parties don’t pass that threshold — and many smaller parties do not — their votes are discarded.

Image
In Jerusalem, the Jewish settlement of Neve Yaakov, in the foreground, is separated from the Palestinian area of al-Ram by a barrier.CreditAhmad Gharabli/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Mr. Netanyahu has shown a penchant for appealing to anti-Arab racism in the finales of Israeli elections, aimed at whipping up the extreme right to fend off challengers and protect his parliamentary majority.

During the 2015 election, Mr. Netanyahu beseeched right-wing voters to cast ballots after a coalition of Israeli Arab parties announced that early voter participation by its supporters had tripled. He posted a video on his Facebook page expressing alarm that Israeli Arabs were “being bused to the polling stations in droves” by left-wing groups.

In what critics are calling a similar appeal to the right in this election, Mr. Netanyahu unexpectedly promised to begin extending Israeli sovereignty over the occupied West Bank if re-elected. The move would almost certainly doom a two-state solution.

[In seeking re-election, Mr. Netanyahu put the West Bank on the ballot.]

Late Monday, he even trotted out his American pollster to attest to his contention that the small number of Likud voters who fail to cast their ballots on Tuesday could cost him the election.

Israelis have a term for Mr. Netanyahu’s late surprises: the “gevalt campaign,” a reference to the Yiddish term for incredulity.

At lunchtime in Beit Shemesh, west of Jerusalem, Snir Moshe, 25, was still mulling his options.

“On the one hand it’s a country of Jews,” he said, expressing fear that a vote for Mr. Gantz’s centrist Blue and White party could lead to the removal of West Bank settlements territorial withdrawals.

On the other hand, said Mr. Moshe, who voted for Mr. Netanyahu’s conservative Likud party in 2015, “Blue and White could make social change, economic change. So I have a few more hours to decide.”

There was no reliable data on last-minute waverers, but Mr. Moshe was hardly alone.

Some deliberated between Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gantz. Others deliberated between a strategic vote for a large party or an ideological vote for a smaller one, but in a neck-and-neck race, many felt they did not have the luxury of voting for a boutique party.

A Hebrew news website, Mako, offered help with an app that quizzed undecided voters about their positions and then offered political guidance.

Miriam Alarkry, 78, had been wavering between Likud and the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, which she usually voted for. In the end she went with Likud, she said, “because it’s the government.”

By 6 p.m. Tuesday, around 52 percent of eligible voters had cast their ballot, with four hours to go before polls closed. Voter turnout was slightly lower than the 2015 election, in which 54.6 percent of eligible voters had cast their ballot by that hour.

Taking advantage of the public holiday, many Israelis were out enjoying the sunshine, packing beaches and national parks. Mr. Netanyahu turned up at the seaside in Netanya and called on his supporters to go vote and swim later. Some said they would do so after sundown.

One Tel Aviv eatery was offering Election Day specials: a “hamburgantz” dedicated to Benny Gantz, served with Gouda cheese and a fried egg; and “Bibi cigars” — phyllo pastry rolls stuffed with lamb — a reference to the cigars that the police say Mr. Netanyahu accepted as gifts from wealthy businessmen who sought official favors.

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President Reuven Rivlin is tasked with formally asking one of the party leaders to form a government.CreditAbir Sultan/EPA, via Shutterstock

President Reuven Rivlin is responsible for formally asking one of the party leaders to form a government based on the outcome of the vote and strength of the possible coalitions. Even if Mr. Gantz’s alliance is slightly ahead of Mr. Netanyahu’s, the president could still ask Mr. Netanyahu to form a government if Likud’s likely allies would give him a stronger coalition.

This happened in the 2009 election, when Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud had 27 seats but the rival Kadima party had 28. The Kadima leader, Tzipi Livni, could not form a coalition, but Mr. Netanyahu could. He has been prime minister ever since.

It is less certain what Mr. Rivlin would do if Mr. Netanyahu had a numerical advantage in forming a coalition but Likud itself trailed Mr. Gantz’s alliance by four or five seats. Mr. Gantz’s supporters argued that Mr. Rivlin would feel pressure in that case to acknowledge the people’s most popular choice and allow Mr. Gantz the chance to form a government.

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The last elections in Gaza were in 2006.CreditShawn Baldwin for The New York Times

Mohammad al-Saptie, 28, has never voted. He envied Israel’s democratic system, he said in Gaza City, as people a few miles away cast their ballots for the fifth time since the last election in Gaza, in 2006.

Mr. al-Saptie, a deliveryman, daydreamed aloud about what a free election might mean for Gaza and how he might choose a party or a candidate to support.

He thought about his 20-month-old daughter, Warda, and about the three wars he has lived through — not counting the 2007 civil war in which the militant group Hamas, which won the 2006 Palestinian elections but had been prevented from taking power by the rival Fatah faction, seized control in Gaza.

“I would vote for a government that can negotiate, make peace and reach a solution with Israel,” Mr. al-Saptie said, “because we do not want blood, murder, death and destruction.”

Like many Palestinians here, Mr. al-Saptie said he was frustrated by Hamas, whose takeover precipitated the Israeli blockade of Gaza that continues to this day. He said he wished Gaza’s various armed factions could be brought under the control of leaders with stronger public support.

“The differences among the people and among leaders are great, and there is hatred,” he said.

His aspirations, he said, are simple: “Security, safety and jobs. We do not want more than this.”

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/09/world/middleeast/israel-elections-netanyahu-gantz.html

2019-04-09 16:34:21Z
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Iran’s leaders warn the U.S. after it names the Revolutionary Guard a terrorist group - The Washington Post

ISTANBUL — Iran’s leaders on Tuesday warned the United States of serious repercussions after it designated the elite Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization.

President Trump on Monday announced the decision against the Revolutionary Guard, Iran’s most potent military force, describing the move as a way to “expand the scope and scale of our maximum pressure on the Iranian regime.”

The decision would allow the Trump administration to seek criminal penalties against elements of the Guard, one of the most revered institutions in Iran.

The Revolutionary Guard was established in 1979 to protect the Islamic revolution that had just overthrown the country’s long-ruling monarchy.

Iran’s often-bickering leaders have presented a united front in the face of the U.S. move. On Tuesday, lawmakers in parliament wore olive-green fatigues to demonstrate solidarity with the Guard and opened the session with chants of “Death to America.”

President Hassan Rouhani called the U.S. move a “mistake” and said it would only boost the organization’s popularity, both at home and abroad. “You thought that if you speak against [the Guard], divisions would arise or you could reduce its popularity,” Rouhani said, according to the Mehr News Agency.

He spoke at an event marking National Nuclear Day, during which he also warned that U.S. efforts would not hinder Iran’s “scientific progress.” Iran’s nuclear program, which it says is intended only for peaceful purposes and not for building weapons, has long been of great international concern.

Last year, Trump withdrew the United States from a nuclear deal that Iran struck with world powers in 2015. The pact limited Iran’s nuclear energy program in exchange for widespread sanctions relief.

On Tuesday, Rouhani announced the installation of new centrifuges at the Natanz facility in Isfahan province.

[Trump raises the stakes against Iran, but why?]

The move is not a violation of the nuclear accord, to which Iran is still a party. It allows for the limited production and testing of advanced centrifuges, but without using them to enrich uranium.

But Rouhani signaled Tuesday that Iran may be willing to push the limits.

“If you continue to walk down this road, you will see IR-8 centrifuges in the future,” he said, referring to a more advanced, high-capacity device. “Our patience has a threshold.”

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, held his own event, speaking to members of the Guard and their families and lauding their role in “defending the country and the revolution.”

He denounced the U.S. decision, saying such “plots” will come back to haunt Trump and his administration, according to a transcript of the remarks posted on Khamenei’s website.

Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile, raised the specter of problems in the Persian Gulf, where elements of the Iranian and U.S. navies often confront each other. The waterway carries 20 percent of the world’s oil shipments.

“New incidents may happen,” he said, according to the official Islamic Republic News Agency.

Read more

What is the Revolutionary Guard?

Crazy-rich Iranians face blowback at a time of sanctions and economic stress

Today’s coverage from Post correspondents around the world

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/irans-rouhani-warns-us-move-against-revolutionary-guards-a-mistake/2019/04/09/c796a42d-f353-48d5-8932-cb12f80c6597_story.html

2019-04-09 15:36:54Z
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Israel Elections: How the Country Chooses a Leader and What’s at Stake - The New York Times

Israel’s parliamentary election on Tuesday brings an end to a neck-and-neck campaign that saw Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the veteran politician of the Israeli right and one of the country’s longest-serving leaders, facing the strongest challenge in years.

Mr. Netanyahu’s tenure has been marked by a collapse of peace talks with the Palestinians, confrontation with Iran, armed conflict with Hamas, and hostility toward what he views as plots to isolate and delegitimize the Jewish state.

But Mr. Netanyahu has also overseen an era of healthy economic growth and stability, thawed relations with Sunni Arab leaders and expanded Israeli trade ties in Africa, Latin America and Asia.

[Read more on Mr. Netanyahu’s ties with President Trump that have emboldened him to take policy risks.]

The prime minister is entangled in corruption scandals that could lead to his indictment. And he faces stiff competition from a new rival, Benny Gantz, the leader of a trio of former generals who could end Mr. Netanyahu’s 10 uninterrupted years as prime minister.

But Israeli elections are complicated and unpredictable, with many parties vying for votes and at times forming opportunistic alliances to secure a parliamentary majority.

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The Blue and White alliance is led by Benny Gantz, center, and two other veteran generals. They have teamed up with a centrist party led by Yair Lapid, left, a former television host and finance minister.CreditDan Balilty for The New York Times

Final pre-election polls showed Mr. Gantz’s centrist Blue and White alliance, a coalition named for the colors of the Israeli flag, slightly ahead of Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud party, a dominant force on the Israeli right for decades.

Their policy stances are similar, a reflection of how Israeli politics have moved increasingly to the right under Mr. Netanyahu. But while Mr. Gantz has sought allies from across the spectrum, Mr. Netanyahu has reached out to the far right to strengthen his prospects for a parliamentary majority. He even has promised to begin extending sovereignty over the occupied West Bank, which the Palestinians want for a future state, if he is re-elected.

The Blue and White leaders are drawing on their military backgrounds to counter Mr. Netanyahu’s contention that only he can protect Israel. Mr. Gantz and his colleagues have also focused on the corruption accusations against Mr. Netanyahu, his biggest vulnerability, to press their case that new leadership is needed.

They have attracted backing from smaller centrist parties. And what remains of the left-leaning opposition has thrown its support behind Mr. Gantz for prime minister. The Labor Party would be likely to recommend Mr. Gantz for the premiership after the election.

Mr. Netanyahu could be indicted. Israel’s attorney general announced last month that he planned to bring charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust.

A final decision on charges is likely by year’s end. Under the current law, Mr. Netanyahu, if re-elected, would not have to resign until a final conviction, although new legislation or public pressure could force him to step down. Mr. Netanyahu has described the charges as a baseless partisan witch hunt. But with a first sitting prime minister to be charged, Israel would be entering uncharted legal and political terrain.

The uncertainty has worked against Mr. Netanyahu in the prelude to the vote.

“The attorney general’s report has done something that has never happened in Israel’s 70-year history, and that is that a prime minister is under a legal cloud,” said David Makovsky, an expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

The election also is the first time that three former heads of the army, the Israel Defense Forces, have united to run for office. The Blue and White alliance is led by Mr. Gantz and two other veteran generals, Gabi Ashkenazi and Moshe Yaalon.

They have teamed up with a well-known centrist party, Yesh Atid, led by Yair Lapid, a former journalist, television host and finance minister. Mr. Gantz has agreed to hand off the prime minister position to Mr. Lapid after two and a half years if their parties win.

While Mr. Netanyahu has a strong record of defending Israel, the Blue and White alliance’s military credentials have made it more difficult for him to attack Mr. Gantz and his colleagues as weak on security.

“The question is, will it neutralize the advantage that Netanyahu has accrued over his previous four terms of being ‘Mr. Security,’” Mr. Makovsky said. “He’s said the words Israelis want to hear: ‘I’ll keep you safe.’”

Voters cast ballots for parties, not individual candidates, to fill seats in the 120-member Knesset, or Parliament. The seats are divided proportionally based on the percentage of the vote each party receives.

Any party that wins 3.25 percent or more of the vote gets at least one seat. If parties don’t pass that threshold — and many smaller parties do not — their votes won’t be counted. That will raise the share of seats given to the other parties.

If one party were to win at least 61 seats, it would be entitled to form a government. But this has never happened in Israeli politics. So once the seats have been apportioned, parties try to cobble together coalitions that control a majority of seats.

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An election billboard for the New Right party, with which Likud is expected to align.CreditDan Balilty for The New York Times

Polls have suggested that Likud and Blue and White will each get about 30 seats — meaning both will be seeking alliances with smaller parties.

Likud is expected to align with a right-wing party known as the New Right, and with an extreme-right alliance known as the Union of Right-Wing Parties, which includes Jewish Power, widely criticized as an extremist, anti-Arab racist party.

Potential Blue and White coalition partners include the Labor Party and the leftist Meretz Party, among others.

[Read about the Palestinian rapper who is urging Arab citizens not to waste their votes by boycotting the elections.]

Probably not.

The president, Reuven Rivlin, has the discretion to give the party leader with the best chance of forming a majority coalition the first opportunity. Typically, but not always, that opportunity goes to the leader of the party with the most votes, who then has 42 days to try.

If that party leader fails, the president turns to another to attempt to create a coalition. So it could take a few months.

It also is possible that the Likud and the Blue and White coalition would join forces and create a national unity government. In theory, Mr. Rivlin could offer both Mr. Gantz and Mr. Netanyahu this opportunity and they could take turns as prime minister.

Mr. Gantz has rejected that idea, vowing that he will not sit on a government with Mr. Netanyahu, though a leaked recording suggested that he might.

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Ayman Odeh, a leading Arab politician, in Nazareth last month. CreditDan Balilty for The New York Times

They represent nearly a fifth of the country’s 5.8 million eligible voters, which could give the four Israeli Arab parties a potential kingmaker role. But these parties have never joined a governing coalition in Israel.

And some Israeli Arab voters have vowed to boycott the election, partly in protest of a new law pushed by Mr. Netanyahu declaring Israel as the “nation state of the Jewish people.” Critics have called the law racist and undemocratic.

They are not Israeli citizens and cannot vote in the election. About 4.75 million Palestinians fall into this category, according to the Institute for Middle East Understanding, a Palestinian group in the United States.

Still steeped in secrecy, President Trump’s long-anticipated plan to resolve the decades-old conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is not much of an issue in the election. Nevertheless, it could be affected.

Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, who has been leading the administration’s efforts to draft the plan, said it would not be made public until after the election.

Many Palestinians already have dismissed the plan — whatever it may contain — because they see Mr. Trump as siding with Israel. But the plan also faces a threat from the parties of the Israeli extreme right, which see any concessions to the Palestinians as unacceptable. If Mr. Netanyahu needs those parties to form a coalition, Mr. Trump’s peace plan may be doomed.

However, if Blue and White wins or forms a national unity government with Likud, that could make way for possible cooperation with the Trump administration on a plan.

David M. Halbfinger, Isabel Kershner and Herbert Buchsbaum contributed reporting.

Read more about the elections in Israel here.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/09/world/middleeast/elections-israel.html

2019-04-09 15:33:45Z
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Israel election scandal: Netanyahu's party hires 1,200 to secretly film Arabs voting - NBC News

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By Allan Smith

As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces what is likely to be a tough re-election fight Tuesday, his Likud party has confirmed reports that it hired and gave cameras to 1,200 polling station observers in what it said was an effort to expose voter fraud, The Jerusalem Post reported.

The party's admission came after Central Elections Committee chairman Justice Hanan Melcer said earlier Tuesday it was illegal to secretly film voters casting ballots.

Earlier Tuesday, hidden cameras were captured in several Israeli Arab towns in the north and in one in the south. The Post reported a man was caught trying to hide a camera in a location in the southern city of Rahat in an attempt to disqualify a polling station. That incident led to about five people being detained in connection with the hidden cameras, The Post reported.

April 9, 201901:59

The left-wing Hadash Tal and Balad parties criticized the Likud for trying to secretly film voters.

Hadash Tal claimed "the extreme Right understands our power well in overthrowing the government and has crossed every border, using illegal means in an attempt to intervene and prevent Arab citizens from voting — but we, too, understand our strength."

Balad, meanwhile, said it "received a message that right-wing activists are disrupting the electoral process in Arab towns by means of wiretapping and hidden cameras [in order] to deter the Arab public from voting. ... We do not give in to the attempts to delegitimize us."

The incidents come as Netanyahu — seeking a fifth term leading the nation — battles for political survival amid corruption allegations that he has denied. The party led by his main rival Benny Gantz, Hosen L'Yisrael, had a slight edge in final opinion polls. While Gantz, a former military chief, entered Election Day with that lead, Netanyahu is still in a strong position to form a governing coalition, The Washington Post reported.

Israel's attorney general announced in February that he planned to indict the prime minister in three corruption cases on charges of bribery and fraud and breach of trust. If Netanyahu remains in power following Tuesday's election and serves beyond July, he will become Israel's longest-serving prime minister.

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https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/netanyahu-s-party-admits-it-hired-1-200-people-secretly-n992381

2019-04-09 14:05:00Z
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