Theresa May has finally made a decision. And it's not one her hard-Brexit allies will like.
The Prime Minister has recognized what many have been saying for weeks -- that there's no majority for her deal in Parliament.
In offering talks with the opposition Labour Party -- and, crucially, offering to accept the result of any vote in Parliament for an alternative Brexit plan -- May has also recognized that she will never be able to persuade her supposed allies in the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party, nor a hard core of Brexiteers in her own Conservative Party.
Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May giving a statement inside 10 Downing Street in London.
May has picked a side, and in agreeing to a cross-party approach, it's the side of a "soft" Brexit -- one that envisages a closer relationship with the EU than she previously could countenance.
"This is a difficult time for everyone. Passions are running high on all sides of the argument. But we can and must find the compromises that will deliver what the British people voted for," May said.
That's a sign that she's about to rub out at least some of her infamous "red lines" which shaped the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated with the EU -- out of the Customs Union, which stops the UK signing independent trade deals, and out of the Single Market, which requires the UK to accept unlimited immigration from the EU.
Theresa May's statement on Tuesday evening represented a significant shift in her Brexit approach, moving away from the prospect of a no-deal split and bringing opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn into the equation.
Labour's shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, and leader Jeremy Corbyn.
The plan will dismay the hardline Brexiteers in her own party, who for so long have opposed her Withdrawal Agreement -- and may now, as a result, lose the hard Brexit they crave.
All eyes now shift to Corbyn, the Labour leader whose next move could shape the future of Brexit. The Prime Minister said she would attempt to forge an agreement with Corbyn that would then be put to the House of Commons.
Corbyn said his guiding principle would be to "avoid the dangers of crashing out" of the EU without a deal. Labour would "hold in reserve" the option of calling a no-confidence motion in May's government, which could trigger a general election if it were successful. He said he would make the move if the government "proves it is incapable of commanding a majority in the House of Commons."
But, what will Corbyn demand in his talks with May?
A customs union: Labour party policy favors a customs union with the EU and "close alignment" to the single market. A motion to add a customs union to May's Brexit deal came the closest to achieving a majority in the Commons during the first two rounds of indicative votes this week. If Labour compromised its demand for single market alignment, her deal could get over the line.
Common Market 2.0: This so-called "Norway Plus" model was also backed by Labour in Monday's indicative votes, and comes closest to Labour's own alternative Brexit plan. But it calls for the UK to stay in the Single Market, which would likely be unpalatable to May.
A second referendum: Corbyn took a long time to come around to the prospect of a second vote, but ultimately supported a plan from one of his backbenchers for a confirmatory vote on any deal May gets through Parliament. Could May accept a combination of a customs union plus a confirmatory referendum? It would be a huge move for her.
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By Associated Press
LONDON — Prime Minister Theresa May said Tuesday that she will seek to further delay Britain's exit from the European Union and seek to make an accord with the political opposition in a bid to break the Brexit impasse.
May made the announcement after the E.U.'s chief negotiator warned that a chaotic and costly Brexit was likely in just 10 days unless Britain snapped out of the political crisis that has paralyzed the government and Parliament.
After a seven-hour Cabinet meeting, May announced a significant softening of her Brexit terms.
"I have always been clear that we could make a success of no-deal in the long term but leaving with a deal is the best solution," she said in a televised statement from 10 Downing St.
"So we will need a further extension of (the E.U.'s) Article 50 — one that is as short as possible and which ends when we pass a deal."
Feb. 7, 201909:58
May said "this debate, this division, cannot drag on much longer" and offered to sit down with opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn in an attempt to find a compromise solution.
Hours before May's statement, E.U. negotiator Michel Barnier offered E.U. legislators his downbeat assessment as British Cabinet ministers tried to thrash out a new proposal that the U.K. Parliament could consider following the defeat of the government's plan and a range of lawmaker-written alternatives.
"As things stand now, the no-deal option looks likely. I have to tell you the truth," Barnier said in Brussels. "We can still hope to avoid it" if the intensive work in London produces a breakthrough before an April 10 EU summit.
Britain could depart from the E.U. without a road map two days after the summit. The leaders of the EU's 27 remaining countries gave the U.K. until April 12 to leave the bloc or to come up with a new plan, after lawmakers thrice rejected an agreement struck between the bloc and May.
The House of Commons on Monday threw out four alternatives to May's Brexit deal — the second day of inconclusive votes on options.
May's statement seemed to indicate that she was veering away from the possibility of a no-deal Brexit.
Exiting without a deal in place would jeopardize trade and travel, with new checks on borders and new regulations on dealings between the E.U. and Britain.
Amid all the uncertainty, analysts have said the economic impact in Britain could be massive.
Ford's European boss said that if the U.K. can't work out a deal on leaving the EU that guarantees "frictionless trade," the vehicle maker "will have to consider seriously the long-term future of our investments in the country."
Ford of Europe Chairman Steven Armstrong told The Associated Press that "a no-deal Brexit would be a disaster for the automotive industry in the U.K."
Barnier warned that challenges remain for the E.U. too, though said the bloc is prepared for a chaotic exit.
"Being prepared for no deal does not mean that there will be no disruption," he said.
Barnier urged Britain's Parliament and government to take a more realistic approach as soon as possible.
"We still have a little bit of patience," he said.
French President Emmanuel Macron and Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar also made urgent appeals before May's statement for Britain to propose an alternative Brexit plan to avoid a no-deal departure.
"We cannot spend the coming months on solving terms for the divorce," Macron said before he and Varadkar met in Paris.
Varadkar stressed "there's still time" for May to come to the April 10 summit with "credible" proposals.
The EU negotiated a long post-Brexit transition period with May. But it was linked to the overall agreement that hasn't won approval in Parliament, so "there is no transition if there is no deal," Barnier said.
Barnier reiterated that the EU was unwilling to renegotiate the 585-page withdrawal agreement but said he would agree to open up the political declaration attached to the legal text.
In Britain, political chaos continued to reign as the Cabinet held a marathon session to try to find a way out of the crisis. A group of pro-Brexit ministers pressed May to go forward with a no-deal departure. Other Cabinet members and a majority of lawmakers think that would be a disaster.
"We are now in a really dangerous situation with a serious and growing risk of no deal," Labour Party legislator Yvette Cooper said.
Cooper has introduced legislation, which Parliament is set to consider, this week, that would require May to seek to extend the Brexit process beyond April 12 in order to prevent a no-deal departure.
Mrs May said she wanted the extension to be "as short as possible" - before 22 May so the UK does not have to take part in European elections.
The UK has until 12 April to propose a plan - which must be accepted by the EU - or it will leave without a deal.
The UK was supposed to leave the EU on 29 March, but Mrs May agreed a short extension after realising Parliament would not agree a deal by the deadline.
Mrs May met her cabinet for more than seven hours on Tuesday, and afterwards gave a statement from Downing Street.
She said she wanted to agree a new plan with Mr Corbyn and put it to a vote in the Commons before 10 April - when the EU will hold an emergency summit on Brexit.
If she and Mr Corbyn do not agree a single way forward, she proposed putting a number of options to MPs "to determine which course to pursue".
The PM said she understood some people were "so fed up with delay and endless arguments" they would prefer to leave without a deal, and she believed the UK "could make a success of no-deal in the long term".
But she added that leaving with a deal was "the best solution".
"This is a difficult time for everyone," said Mrs May. "Passions are running high on all sides of the argument, but we can and must find the compromises that will deliver what the British people voted for.
"This is a decisive moment in the story of these islands and it requires national unity to deliver the national interest."
How has Brexit unfolded?
November 2018: UK agrees withdrawal agreement and framework of future relations with EU
December 2018: Theresa May postpones first meaningful vote on deal to seek further assurances from EU
15 January: House of Commons rejects overall Brexit deal by 230 votes
13 March: MPs vote down Brexit deal for second time by 149 votes
22 March: EU agrees to delay Brexit beyond 29 March - but only to 12 April if UK can't agree deal within a week
29 March: MPs reject withdrawal agreement on its own by 58 votes
2 April: PM says she will seek further "short extension" from the EU
Hilary Benn, the Labour MP who chairs the Commons Brexit committee, said the PM's decision to apply for a further extension from the EU was "good news".
"I welcome the fact that the PM has finally acknowledged she cannot take the UK out of the EU next Friday with no deal," he told the BBC.
But he said Mrs May needed to show she was genuinely open to new ideas.
"She really needs to give Parliament an indication she is willing to move. If this is the first indication she will shift, that is important but if it is the same old story then it isn't."
But Brexit-supporting Labour MP Kate Hoey said "whatever compromise" Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn came up with, many MPs would simply not vote for the withdrawal agreement.
"I still feel there is an opportunity for what people actually voted for," she told the BBC's Beyond 100 Days programme.
"They voted to leave. It is really quite simple. It is just so many MPs don't want us to leave and have stopped us trying to do so."
After Mrs May's statement, the president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, called for patience.
Theresa May’s government is now so out of ideas and time that Parliament as a whole has been given extraordinary powers to introduce motions to vote on. On Monday, the latest four of these failed to win a majority, even though each promoted a “Remainer” preference and should have appealed to the “Remainer” majority in Parliament.
With the failure of these latest attempts to thwart the verdict of the referendum, the United Kingdom is set to leave the European Union on April 12, but a lot can still happen before then.
May’s thrice-rejected deal will get another vote, as will other Parliamentary motions. Alternatively, May or the whole government could resign, or the government could try to delay or just call the whole thing off by revoking Article 50.
I believe the U.K. will leave the EU at the end of next week with no deal, and here is why.
First, this is what will happen by default. The date cannot be extended without EU consent and Britain taking part in upcoming EU elections. Brussels will be loath to part with £39 billion, but the EU knows the new intake of UK MEPs would most likely be even more Eurosceptic and rebellious.
What sweet irony if the EU ends up giving Brexiteers the “no-deal” exit that their own parliament has sought to deny them.
Secondly, last week the U.K. Parliament voted against May’s plan for the third time, although the margin of defeat has reduced each time, from 230 to 149 to 58. Will a fourth vote turn that still-large gap into a majority?
May did manage to win over senior Eurosceptic Conservatives such as Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg with the reasoning that her deal was now the only chance for the U.K. to leave the EU, but there are no guarantees they will repeat such an indiscretion.
How could they have voted for it at all, after claiming the deal leaves Britain in a state of permanent vassalage, forced to abide by EU directives? Indeed, one of those “turned” MP’s, Richard Drax, felt the need to apologize afterwards in the House of Commons for having voted for May’s deal and deserted his Brexit colleagues.
Thirdly, although Parliament disparages a “no-deal” exit as “falling off a cliff” or “crashing out,” it is the one option that circumvents the ongoing EU controls that May’s deal involves and saves Britain from paying the extortionate divorce bill.
The often-repeated doomsday warnings against a no-deal Brexit have little credibility among Leavers. Even the former governor of the Bank of England, Lord Mervyn King, supports “no-deal.” He sees many benefits of initially trading on World Trade Organization terms.
Brexiteers understand that once the U.K. is fully out it will then be in a much stronger position to seek genuine free trade deals with Europe and elsewhere. If Japan can have an FTA with the EU, then why not the U.K.?
Another big fan of Great Britain acquiring full independence from the EU customs union is President Trump, who is offering the U.K. a huge future trade deal. So, why is this not high on May’s agenda?
May claims she has sought to deliver an orderly exit from the EU, but her deal has the appearance of an “insurance policy” designed to prevent a clean Brexit.
Just as the deep state didn’t want Trump elected president, Brexit wasn’t part of the U.K. establishment’s plan either. But so far, every alternative they have tried to come up with to delay, block, or redefine it has failed.
The real heroes of Brexit have been the 10 members of Parliament from the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland, led by Arlene Foster. They formed an alliance to keep the Conservatives in power after the disastrous last election, preventing Jeremy Corbyn from taking over.
Since then, they have consistently voted against May’s deal and energized “Leaver” Conservative MPs to follow suit. The DUP’s reason is that they place keeping the U.K. together above all else. They know that May’s deal has the potential to divide Northern Ireland from mainland Britain.
What a pity that such patriotism didn’t factor as highly in the Prime Minister’s thoughts when she first proposed the backstop to prevent Northern Ireland from being cut off from the rest of the U.K.
Andrew Davies is a UK-based video producer and script writer.
LONDON/BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union said on Tuesday that Britain could be heading for a potentially disorderly exit in just 10 days time as Prime Minister Theresa May met with ministers to thrash out ways to break the Brexit deadlock.
Nearly three years since the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU in a shock referendum result, May’s exit strategy is up in the air as her government and party are still squabbling over how, when or even if Brexit should happen.
May’s divorce deal has been defeated three times by the lower house of the British parliament, which failed on Monday to find a majority of its own for any alternatives. She is expected to try to put her deal to a fourth vote this week.
The deadlock has already delayed Brexit for at least two weeks beyond the planned departure date to 2200 GMT on April 12.
“Over the last days a no-deal scenario has become more likely, but we can still hope to avoid it,” EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said in Brussels.
May chaired several hours of cabinet meetings in Downing Street in a bid to find a way out of the crisis. It was unclear what, if anything, had been agreed.
Barnier said May’s deal was the only way to ensure an orderly EU exit for the world’s fifth-largest economy. If the deal was rejected, London must choose between a no-deal Brexit and a long delay, he said.
European Central Bank policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said markets needed to price in the growing risk of a no-deal.
The cacophony of warnings over a disorderly Brexit ratchet up the pressure on British lawmakers as some try to grab control of parliament to prevent a no-deal.
If May cannot get her deal ratified by parliament then she has a choice between leaving without a deal, trying to trigger an election, or asking the EU for a long delay to negotiate a Brexit agreement with a much closer relationship with the bloc.
At least half of her Conservative Party wants to leave the EU without a deal, though some lawmakers and ministers are telling her she must keep the United Kingdom firmly within the bloc’s economic orbit.
May will set out next steps ahead of an emergency EU summit on April 10, her spokesman said. May remained opposed to another referendum, he added.
“I hope that we can still find a solution. The British parliament has said itself that it doesn’t want a disorderly Brexit,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said.
The defeat of May’s deal after pledging to quit if it was passed has left the weakest British leader in a generation facing a spiralling crisis.
FILE PHOTO: Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May attends a Serious Youth Violence Summit in Downing Street, London, Britain April 1, 2019. Adrian Dennis/Pool via REUTERS
The British electorate, its two major parties and May’s cabinet are all divided over Brexit. May risks ripping her party apart whichever way she tilts.
BREXIT CHAOS?
Investors and diplomats are in despair at the chaos and such is the volatility of Brexit news from London that some traders have stepped away from sterling - which has seesawed on Brexit news since the 2016 referendum.
Sterling fell towards $1.30. The EU said a no-deal would disrupt financial markets and have an impact on liquidity.
“Markets were betting as recently as yesterday that there would be a deal and they are going to need to price in the growing risk of a no deal, including on the value of the pound,” the ECB’s Villeroy told French radio station BFM Business.
Britain’s top civil servant, Mark Sedwill, said a no-deal Brexit would push up food prices by 10 percent, force direct British rule in Northern Ireland and compromise national security, the Daily Mail reported.
Auto-maker Ford also sounded the alarm bells, saying it would have to consider what actions to take to protect its buisness in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
“We’ve been clear with the government in the UK and also in Brussels, we have to maintain frictionless trade at the borders and tariff-free trade,” Ford Europe Chairman Steven Armstrong said.
Slideshow (6 Images)
No-deal means there would be no transition so the exit would be abrupt. Britain is a member of the WTO so tariffs and other terms governing its trade with the EU would be set under WTO rules.
A group of lawmakers said on Tuesday they would try to pass a law which would force May to seek a delay Brexit and thus prevent a no-deal exit on April 12.
“We are now in a really dangerous situation with a serious and growing risk of no-deal in 10 days’ time,” said opposition Labour lawmaker Yvette Cooper, who has proposed the legislation alongside eleven others from several political parties.
With Brexit stalled, parliament has been trying to come up with an alternative but has thus far failed. That means May’s deal is back in focus, though she must find a way to get around a ban on repeatedly bringing the same matter to a vote in parliament.
Additional reporting by Jan Strupczewski in Brussels, Andreas Rinke and Michelle Martin in Berlin, William James and Ritvik Carvalho in London and Tom Miles in Geneva ; Writing by Guy Faulconbridge; editing by Michael Holden and Angus MacSwan
