The UK will leave the EU next Tuesday - Washington Examiner

Theresa May’s government is now so out of ideas and time that Parliament as a whole has been given extraordinary powers to introduce motions to vote on. On Monday, the latest four of these failed to win a majority, even though each promoted a “Remainer” preference and should have appealed to the “Remainer” majority in Parliament.

With the failure of these latest attempts to thwart the verdict of the referendum, the United Kingdom is set to leave the European Union on April 12, but a lot can still happen before then.

May’s thrice-rejected deal will get another vote, as will other Parliamentary motions. Alternatively, May or the whole government could resign, or the government could try to delay or just call the whole thing off by revoking Article 50.

I believe the U.K. will leave the EU at the end of next week with no deal, and here is why.

First, this is what will happen by default. The date cannot be extended without EU consent and Britain taking part in upcoming EU elections. Brussels will be loath to part with £39 billion, but the EU knows the new intake of UK MEPs would most likely be even more Eurosceptic and rebellious.

What sweet irony if the EU ends up giving Brexiteers the “no-deal” exit that their own parliament has sought to deny them.

Secondly, last week the U.K. Parliament voted against May’s plan for the third time, although the margin of defeat has reduced each time, from 230 to 149 to 58. Will a fourth vote turn that still-large gap into a majority?

May did manage to win over senior Eurosceptic Conservatives such as Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg with the reasoning that her deal was now the only chance for the U.K. to leave the EU, but there are no guarantees they will repeat such an indiscretion.

How could they have voted for it at all, after claiming the deal leaves Britain in a state of permanent vassalage, forced to abide by EU directives? Indeed, one of those “turned” MP’s, Richard Drax, felt the need to apologize afterwards in the House of Commons for having voted for May’s deal and deserted his Brexit colleagues.

Thirdly, although Parliament disparages a “no-deal” exit as “falling off a cliff” or “crashing out,” it is the one option that circumvents the ongoing EU controls that May’s deal involves and saves Britain from paying the extortionate divorce bill.

The often-repeated doomsday warnings against a no-deal Brexit have little credibility among Leavers. Even the former governor of the Bank of England, Lord Mervyn King, supports “no-deal.” He sees many benefits of initially trading on World Trade Organization terms.

Brexiteers understand that once the U.K. is fully out it will then be in a much stronger position to seek genuine free trade deals with Europe and elsewhere. If Japan can have an FTA with the EU, then why not the U.K.?

Another big fan of Great Britain acquiring full independence from the EU customs union is President Trump, who is offering the U.K. a huge future trade deal. So, why is this not high on May’s agenda?

May claims she has sought to deliver an orderly exit from the EU, but her deal has the appearance of an “insurance policy” designed to prevent a clean Brexit.

Just as the deep state didn’t want Trump elected president, Brexit wasn’t part of the U.K. establishment’s plan either. But so far, every alternative they have tried to come up with to delay, block, or redefine it has failed.

The real heroes of Brexit have been the 10 members of Parliament from the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland, led by Arlene Foster. They formed an alliance to keep the Conservatives in power after the disastrous last election, preventing Jeremy Corbyn from taking over.

Since then, they have consistently voted against May’s deal and energized “Leaver” Conservative MPs to follow suit. The DUP’s reason is that they place keeping the U.K. together above all else. They know that May’s deal has the potential to divide Northern Ireland from mainland Britain.

What a pity that such patriotism didn’t factor as highly in the Prime Minister’s thoughts when she first proposed the backstop to prevent Northern Ireland from being cut off from the rest of the U.K.

Andrew Davies is a UK-based video producer and script writer.

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2019-04-02 15:09:00Z
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May looks for a way out of Brexit maelstrom as EU says no-deal exit looms - Reuters

LONDON/BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Union said on Tuesday that Britain could be heading for a potentially disorderly exit in just 10 days time as Prime Minister Theresa May met with ministers to thrash out ways to break the Brexit deadlock.

Nearly three years since the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU in a shock referendum result, May’s exit strategy is up in the air as her government and party are still squabbling over how, when or even if Brexit should happen.

May’s divorce deal has been defeated three times by the lower house of the British parliament, which failed on Monday to find a majority of its own for any alternatives. She is expected to try to put her deal to a fourth vote this week.

The deadlock has already delayed Brexit for at least two weeks beyond the planned departure date to 2200 GMT on April 12.

“Over the last days a no-deal scenario has become more likely, but we can still hope to avoid it,” EU chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said in Brussels.

May chaired several hours of cabinet meetings in Downing Street in a bid to find a way out of the crisis. It was unclear what, if anything, had been agreed.

Barnier said May’s deal was the only way to ensure an orderly EU exit for the world’s fifth-largest economy. If the deal was rejected, London must choose between a no-deal Brexit and a long delay, he said.

European Central Bank policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said markets needed to price in the growing risk of a no-deal.

The cacophony of warnings over a disorderly Brexit ratchet up the pressure on British lawmakers as some try to grab control of parliament to prevent a no-deal.

If May cannot get her deal ratified by parliament then she has a choice between leaving without a deal, trying to trigger an election, or asking the EU for a long delay to negotiate a Brexit agreement with a much closer relationship with the bloc.

At least half of her Conservative Party wants to leave the EU without a deal, though some lawmakers and ministers are telling her she must keep the United Kingdom firmly within the bloc’s economic orbit.

May will set out next steps ahead of an emergency EU summit on April 10, her spokesman said. May remained opposed to another referendum, he added.

“I hope that we can still find a solution. The British parliament has said itself that it doesn’t want a disorderly Brexit,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said.

The defeat of May’s deal after pledging to quit if it was passed has left the weakest British leader in a generation facing a spiralling crisis.

FILE PHOTO: Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May attends a Serious Youth Violence Summit in Downing Street, London, Britain April 1, 2019. Adrian Dennis/Pool via REUTERS

The British electorate, its two major parties and May’s cabinet are all divided over Brexit. May risks ripping her party apart whichever way she tilts.

BREXIT CHAOS?

Investors and diplomats are in despair at the chaos and such is the volatility of Brexit news from London that some traders have stepped away from sterling - which has seesawed on Brexit news since the 2016 referendum.

Sterling fell towards $1.30. The EU said a no-deal would disrupt financial markets and have an impact on liquidity.

“Markets were betting as recently as yesterday that there would be a deal and they are going to need to price in the growing risk of a no deal, including on the value of the pound,” the ECB’s Villeroy told French radio station BFM Business.

Britain’s top civil servant, Mark Sedwill, said a no-deal Brexit would push up food prices by 10 percent, force direct British rule in Northern Ireland and compromise national security, the Daily Mail reported.

Auto-maker Ford also sounded the alarm bells, saying it would have to consider what actions to take to protect its buisness in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

“We’ve been clear with the government in the UK and also in Brussels, we have to maintain frictionless trade at the borders and tariff-free trade,” Ford Europe Chairman Steven Armstrong said.

Slideshow (6 Images)

No-deal means there would be no transition so the exit would be abrupt. Britain is a member of the WTO so tariffs and other terms governing its trade with the EU would be set under WTO rules.

A group of lawmakers said on Tuesday they would try to pass a law which would force May to seek a delay Brexit and thus prevent a no-deal exit on April 12.

“We are now in a really dangerous situation with a serious and growing risk of no-deal in 10 days’ time,” said opposition Labour lawmaker Yvette Cooper, who has proposed the legislation alongside eleven others from several political parties.

With Brexit stalled, parliament has been trying to come up with an alternative but has thus far failed. That means May’s deal is back in focus, though she must find a way to get around a ban on repeatedly bringing the same matter to a vote in parliament.

Additional reporting by Jan Strupczewski in Brussels, Andreas Rinke and Michelle Martin in Berlin, William James and Ritvik Carvalho in London and Tom Miles in Geneva ; Writing by Guy Faulconbridge; editing by Michael Holden and Angus MacSwan

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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2019-04-02 13:35:29Z
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U.S. blocks Turkey's F-35 equipment over S-400 deal with Russia - NBC News

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April 2, 2019, 12:23 PM GMT / Updated April 2, 2019, 12:58 PM GMT

By Mosheh Gains, Abigail Williams and Alexander Smith

WASHINGTON — The U.S. has blocked Turkey from receiving equipment relating to the F-35 fighter jet until its NATO ally cancels an order of a Russian missile defense system.

Washington is deeply unhappy about Turkey's order of Russia's S-400 Triumf, which is among the most advanced and feared air-defense systems in the world.

At the same time, Turkey has ordered 30 of the F-35 stealth fighters and plans to buy more than 100 in total, according to manufacturer Lockheed Martin Corp.

Turkey has already "received" its first two jets, although these are currently being kept at Arizona's Luke Air Force Base, where Turkish pilots are training with them.

"The United States has been clear that Turkey's acquisition of the S-400 is unacceptable," acting Pentagon spokesman Charles E. Summers Jr. said in a statement Monday. "Should Turkey procure the S-400, their continued participation in the F-35 program is at risk."

A new S-400 "Triumph" surface-to-air missile system after its deployment at a military base outside the town of Gvardeysk near Kaliningrad, Russia, March 11, 2019.Vitaly Nevar / Reuters file

Turkey agreed to buy the S-400 system from Russia in 2017, a deal reportedly worth $2.5 billion that's set to begin delivery in July.

After months of warnings and ultimatums, the U.S. suspension represents the first major concrete step in trying force Turkey to rethink. This week marks the alliance's 70th anniversary.

Vice President Mike Pence said in February that the U.S. "will not stand idly by while NATO allies purchase weapons from our adversaries."

It is one strand of a increasingly frayed relationship between Washington and its ally that joined NATO in 1952.

The two countries have clashed over Syria, where Turkey opposes U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters who have been instrumental in the fight against ISIS.

Turkey has also been calling for the U.S. to extradite Fethullah Gulen, the exiled cleric currently holed up in a Pennsylvania compound who remains a target of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The S-400 represents arguably the most pressing of these disputes. Code-named "Growler" by NATO, the system boasts a range of 250 miles and is capable of shooting down aircraft, cruise missiles and drones up to an altitude of 100,000 feet, according to Russian state media.

The U.S. said Monday it was suspending "deliveries and activities associated" with the jet's "operational capability," the spokesman said. In addition, because parts of the F-35 are made in Turkey, the spokesman said the U.S. is now looking at other options for this part of the supply chain.

The ramifications of the S-400 deal could extend further, with "potential future arms transfers" to Turkey from the U.S. also being in jeopardy, a State Department spokesperson said.

Turkey might also face sanctions, thespokesman added, namely under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, or CAATSA, which the U.S. deployed when China bought the S-400 and other equipment from Russia's blacklisted state arms export agency.

The suspension came one day before President Donald Trump is due to meet NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Washington on Tuesday.

The capital on Thursday will host a summit of the alliance's foreign ministers — including Turkey's — recognizing NATO's 70th anniversary.

Nov. 16, 201805:51

The U.S. and NATO say their biggest concern about the S-400 relates to what they call "interoperability" — making sure all the allies' equipment gels together and communicates seamlessly.

If Turkey buys a Russian missile defense system, it would mean part of its defense infrastructure speaking a different language to the rest of the Western alliance.

Furthermore, some experts worry that if Turkey has both the S-400 and the F-35 on its soil, it will be able to test the Russian system's ability to track the jet, ultimately reducing its effectiveness. Such data would be invaluable were it to fall into the Kremlin's hands.

Mosheh Gains and Abigail Williams reported from Washington, and Alexander Smith reported from London.

Mosheh Gains

Mosheh Gains is a Pentagon producer for NBC News.

Abigail Williams

Alexander Smith

Alexander Smith is a London-based senior reporter for NBC News Digital.

Reuters contributed.

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2019-04-02 12:23:00Z
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Wall Street on Brexit: Top banks predict what will happen next - CNBC

Brexit may look like a confused mess for many, but the big banks are still making calls.

The U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May has seen her preferred deal with Europe rejected three times, but the very same U.K. lawmakers that voted it down have themselves failed twice to agree on any alternatives.

On Tuesday, May called an extended meeting of her senior ministers to try to formulate a plan as the clock ticks down to Europe's next deadline — April 22.

Whether the government heaves toward a no-deal departure, calls a snap general election, works out a softer Brexit or doesn't even leave the European Union are all given similar credibility.

CNBC takes a look at what Wall Street thinks will happen next.

Goldman Sachs said Brexit has cost the U.K. £600 million ($783 million) a week since the 2016 referendum, with economic growth declining by around 2.5 percent.

"The resulting uncertainty over the future political and economic relationship with the EU has had real costs for the U.K. economy, which have spilled over to other economies," Goldman analysts said in a note to clients this week.

The bank also sees a 15 percent chance of a no-deal Brexit which would cause a 17 percent decline in the pound.

The bank has assigned a 35 percent probability of Brexit not happening at all.

The inability of lawmakers, so far, to forge a clear path forward has given May a tiny bit of wiggle room to potentially return to the Houses of Parliament with a fourth shot at getting her provisional agreement over the line.

With parliamentary convention dictating that the vote may have to somehow differ in substance from previous attempts, the bank suggests there could be a run-off vote against another option.

Of the alternatives that lawmakers have been looking into, J.P. Morgan predicts Parliament will coalesce around a single "softer Brexit" option this week.

The bank's greatest probability is a general election at 30 percent, with May's agreement or a long extension to the U.K. exit placed at 20 percent. A second referendum or a no deal are both the least likely options at 15 percent each.

Citi doesn't indicate preferences or probabilities to any Brexit outcome.

However, the bank is not alone in noting that the ruling Conservative Party appears to be hardening toward a "no-deal" Brexit.

Around 200 Conservative lawmakers have reportedly signed a letter to the prime minister demanding a "managed" no-deal exit. But Citi still expects the U.K government to back away from the cliff edge.

The bank noted that a general election would only increase uncertainty and would possibly strengthen the hand of the separatist Scottish National Party (SNP).

On the prospect of May returning her vote to Parliament, Citi believes it would once again be defeated.

The chances of Britain crashing out of the European Union without a deal on April 12 have increased to one in four, according to Deutsche Bank.

The German lender said Monday that it was now bearish on the pound as confusion over the U.K.'s withdrawal from Europe continued.

The bank raised its estimate for the chances of a no-deal Brexit to 25 percent from 20 percent and is targeting an exchange rate of 90 pence per euro. On Monday, the euro was buying 85.61 pence.

Deutsche's base case scenario, which holds a 30 percent probability, is that any consensus agreed by Parliament will fail to be enacted by the government and a general election will be required.

In its note, Deutsche said new elections should not be viewed positively and not just because of the potential for a left-wing Labour government.

"More relevant, in our view is the fact that polling suggests the result could be similar to that in 2017, which has led to the current parliamentary deadlock," said Deutsche Bank macro strategist, Oliver Harvey.

Swiss giant UBS uses its latest Brexit analysis to suggest that an early general election in the U.K. may now be inevitable.

Elections in the U.K. are now held every 5 years unless there is a vote of no confidence in the government or two-thirds of lawmakers vote in favor of holding one.

UBS thinks the latter scenario could be possible as Conservative lawmakers gamble that they could increase their level of support at the ballot box, allowing a greater mandate for Theresa May to pass her Brexit deal.

UBS analysis of swing seats has suggested a Brexit focused election could be of greater help to the Conservatives than the opposition Labour party.

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2019-04-02 12:57:12Z
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Brexit: No deal more likely but can be avoided - Barnier - BBC News

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A no-deal Brexit is now more likely but can still be avoided, the EU's chief negotiator has said.

Michel Barnier said a long extension to the UK's 12 April exit date had "significant risks for the EU" and a "strong justification would be needed".

Meanwhile, the BBC's John Pienaar said Theresa May's cabinet has considered plans to "ramp up" preparations for a no-deal Brexit.

A snap general election was also discussed in the meeting, he said.

A second two-hour regular cabinet meeting will be held later, with the issues likely to be discussed again.

It comes after MPs voted on four alternatives to the PM's withdrawal deal, but none gained a majority.

In the Commons votes on Monday, MPs rejected a customs union with the EU by three votes. A motion for another referendum got the most votes in favour, but still lost.

The so-called indicative votes were not legally binding, but they had been billed as the moment when Parliament might finally compromise.

That did not happen, and one Tory MP - Nick Boles, who was behind one of the proposals - resigned the whip in frustration.

Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay told MPs that if they wanted to secure a further delay from the EU, the government must put forward a "credible proposition".

One suggestion has been the possibility of a general election - but former foreign secretary Boris Johnson told BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg that would be likely to "infuriate" voters.

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Instead, Mr Johnson said he believed a new leader and "change in negotiation tactic" could "retrofit" the PM's "terrible" agreement with the EU.

Speaking on Tuesday morning, Mr Barnier said: "No deal was never our desire or intended scenario but the EU 27 is now prepared. It becomes day after day more likely."

Mr Barnier told the European Parliament's foreign affairs committee that "things are somewhat hanging on the decisions of the House of Commons", and that the deal was negotiated with the UK "not against the UK".

"If we are to avoid a no-deal Brexit, there is only one way forward - they have got to vote on a deal.

"There is only one treaty available - this one," he said, waving the withdrawal agreement.

Former Brexit Secretary David Davis told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the way forward was to address the controversial Irish backstop - a measure to avoid the return of a hard border on the island of Ireland.

He said the most "constructive outcome" would be the Malthouse Compromise - which includes extending the transition period for a year until the end of 2021 and protecting EU citizens' rights, instead of using the backstop.

But the Leader of the Commons Andrea Leadsom said the prime minister's deal was the best option.

"The compromise option, the one that delivers on the EU referendum but at the same time enables us to accommodate the wishes of those who wanted to remain in the EU - that is the best compromise," she said.

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Your guide to Brexit jargon

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Labour MP and chairman of the Brexit select committee Hilary Benn told Today that a confirmatory referendum was the best solution.

"A good leader would be taking that decision and put it back to the people," he said.

"[The] fear is that the PM is not going to move an inch. That is why we are at a moment of crisis."

Mrs May's plan for the UK's departure has been rejected by MPs three times.

Last week, Parliament took control of the process away from the government in order to hold a series of votes designed to find an alternative way forward.

Eight options were put to MPs, but none was able to command a majority, and on Monday night, a whittled-down four were rejected too.

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Those pushing for a customs union argued that their option was defeated by the narrowest margin - only three votes.

It would see the UK remain in the same system of tariffs - taxes - on goods as the rest of the EU, potentially simplifying the issue of the Northern Ireland border, but prevent the UK from striking independent trade deals with other countries.

Those in favour of another EU referendum pointed out that the motion calling for that option received the most votes in favour, totalling 280.

For months, Parliament has been saying "Let us have a say, let us find the way forward," but in the end they couldn't quite do it. Parliament doesn't know what it wants and we still have lots of different tribes and factions who aren't willing to make peace.

That means that by the day, two things are becoming more likely. One, leaving the EU without a deal. And two, a general election, because we're at an impasse.

One person who doesn't think that would be a good idea is former foreign secretary and Brexiteer Boris Johnson.

He told me going to the polls would "solve nothing" and would "just infuriate people". He also said that only somebody who "really believes in Brexit" should be in charge once Theresa May steps down. I wonder who that could be...

Hear more from Laura and the gang in Brexitcast

What next?

• Tuesday 2 April: A five-hour cabinet meeting
• Wednesday 3 April: Potentially another round of indicative votes
• Thursday 4 April: Theresa May could bring her withdrawal deal back before MPs for a fourth vote
• Wednesday 10 April: Emergency summit of EU leaders to consider any UK request for further extension
• Friday 12 April: Brexit day, if UK does not seek / EU does not grant further delay
• 23-26 May: European Parliamentary elections

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2019-04-02 11:28:11Z
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Warnings of chaotic 'no-deal' grow amid UK Brexit deadlock - Fox News

LONDON – The alarms are flashing, the cliff-edge is coming closer — but can Britain avoid tumbling out of the European Union?

After lawmakers rejected the government's Brexit deal on three occasions, and twice failed to agree on any other option, the U.K. has just 10 days to come up with a new plan or crash out of the EU.

A look at what might happen next:

NO DEAL

Michel Barnier, who has been the chief Brexit negotiator for the other 27 EU countries, has warned that a 'no-deal' Brexit is "likely" because of Britain's political impasse.

Earlier this month, the EU agreed to postpone the original Brexit date of March 29, but gave Britain only until April 12 to come up with a new plan and seek a further extension, or leave without an agreement or a transition period to smooth the way.

Most politicians, economists and business groups think leaving the world's largest trading bloc without an agreement would be damaging for the EU and disastrous for the U.K. It would lead to tariffs imposed on trade between Britain and the EU, customs checks that could cause gridlock at ports and which could spark shortages of essential goods.

A hard core of Brexiteer legislators in May's Conservative Party dismiss this as "Project Fear" and argue for what they call a "clean Brexit." But most lawmakers are opposed to leaving without a deal. Parliament has voted repeatedly to rule out a 'no-deal' Brexit — but it remains the default position unless a deal is approved, Brexit is canceled or the EU grants Britain another extension.

May says the only way to guarantee Britain does not leave the EU without a deal is for Parliament to back her deal, which lawmakers have already rejected three times.

Barring that, Parliament could try to take drastic action such as toppling the government or legislating to force it to avoid 'no-deal' — though these are risky and tricky options.

___

MAY'S UNDEAD DEAL

After almost two years of negotiations, Britain and the EU struck a divorce deal in November, laying out the terms of the departure from the bloc and giving a rough outline of future relations.

But it has been roundly rejected by lawmakers on both sides of the Brexit divide. Pro-Brexit lawmakers think it keeps Britain too closely tied to EU rules. Pro-EU legislators argue it is worse than the U.K.'s current status as an EU member.

Parliament has thrown it out three times, although the latest defeat, by 58 votes, was the narrowest yet. It was rejected even after May won over some pro-Brexit lawmakers by promising to quit if it was approved.

May is considering one last push this week, arguing that Parliament's failure to back any other deal means her agreement is the best option available. But the odds of success look long.

___

SOFT BREXIT

On Monday, Parliament voted on four alternative proposals to May's rejected deal after lawmakers seized control of the schedule from the government.

None got a majority, but the votes revealed a solid block of support for a "soft Brexit" that would maintain close economic ties between Britain and the EU. A plan to keep the U.K. in an EU customs union, ensuring seamless trade in goods, was defeated by just three votes.

May has ruled those options out, because sticking to EU trade rules would limit Britain's ability to forge new trade deals around the world.

But tweaking her deal to adopt a customs union could gain May valuable votes in Parliament. It also would likely be welcomed by the EU and would allow Britain to leave the bloc in an orderly fashion in the next few months.

However, it would also cause a schism in the Conservative Party, sparking the potential resignation of pro-Brexit government ministers.

___

NEW BREXIT REFERENDUM

Parliament also narrowly rejected a proposal for a new referendum on whether to leave the EU or remain.

The proposal for any Brexit deal to be put to public vote in a "confirmatory referendum" was defeated by 12 votes. It was backed by opposition parties, plus some of May's Conservatives — mainly those who want to stay in the bloc.

Her government has ruled out holding another referendum on Britain's EU membership, saying voters in 2016 made their decision to leave.

But with divisions in both Parliament and in May's Cabinet, handing the decision back to the people in a new plebiscite could be seen as the only way forward.

___

BREXIT DELAYED

The alternative to a "no-deal" departure is to delay Brexit for at least several months, and possibly more than a year, to sort out the mess. The EU is frustrated with the impasse and has said it will only grant another postponement if Britain comes up with a whole new Brexit plan.

The bloc is reluctant to have a departing Britain participate in the May 23-26 European parliament elections, but that would have to be done if Brexit is delayed. Still, EU Council President Donald Tusk has urged the bloc to give Britain a Brexit extension if it plans to change course.

A long delay raises the chances of an early British election, which could rearrange Parliament and break the deadlock.

___

Follow AP's full coverage of Brexit at: https://www.apnews.com/Brexit

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2019-04-02 11:07:13Z
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Trump seems inclined to close border despite potential chaos - CNN

Such a dramatic gesture would fulfill many of Trump's most fundamental short-term political goals and indulge a domineering personality and a desire to please his most vehement supporters that drives so much of his behavior as President.

"Our detention areas are maxed out & we will take no more illegals. Next step is to close the Border!" Trump tweeted on Monday, after telling reporters over the weekend, "I'm not playing games."

Trump's anti-immigration rhetoric and willingness to flout international norms suggest he cares little about the humanitarian and diplomatic implications of such a radical move, which he has threatened to take as early as this week.

Yet the swift and severe economic impact of closing the border -- on industries like auto manufacturing, retail and fresh produce, and on US exports to a top trading partner, Mexico -- could finally stay the President's hand and suggests he could be bluffing again.

There were also signs Monday that the administration could be using the threat of a border closure to leverage more action from regional governments to stop the flight of migrants, when Stephen Miller, Trump's senior adviser, said the President was not quite ready to decide on a border closure.

"We will see how much progress we are able to make in the ensuing days, in terms of getting more enforcement with Central and South America, so that we are not getting swamped by meritless asylum claims predominantly from Central America," Miller told top administration immigration surrogates on a conference call, according to notes taken by a listener and obtained by CNN.

A border closure could immediately hike prices of fruits and vegetables all over the United States at a time of the growing season when Mexico is an especially important source of America's food. Within a few days, shortages could ripple around the country, including in Trump's political heartlands of the Midwest and the South.

"We haven't seen a time in the US when supermarket shelves are bare from fresh produce in a long time," said Lance Jungmeyer, president of the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas. "We have grown very accustomed to having all the food we want when we want to eat it and at a price that is reasonable."

So while Trump would be handing a win on immigration to his supporters on one hand, he could be taking away something even more vital on the other -- a political equation that may weigh against a border closure.

"The impact in the US in general, including with the President's base, would be quite substantial and happen quite quickly," said Geoff Thale, vice president of programs at the Washington Office on Latin America, a human rights and advocacy organization.

A potential political dead end

Another big political downside for the President is that a border closure may not be the most effective way to mitigate a crisis sparked by a rush of asylum claims. It could cause other problems at the border and walk him into a political dead end from which he would find it hard to extricate himself.

As with many other administration initiatives -- including the recent Justice Department decision to back the eradication of Obamacare -- there's not much evidence of planning ahead by the White House.

Despite sending more customs and border personnel to the US-Mexico frontier on Monday and considering the appointment of an immigration czar, the administration has yet to explain how all or part of the border could be closed or what such a step could mean.

Still, senior White House officials, in public and in private, say they can't predict what the President will do to address what Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen says is a "careening" crisis over a spike in migrants flocking to the border. According to Customs and Border Protection, final figures of border crossings by undocumented migrants in March were set to top 100,000, with 40,000 children taken into custody during the month. Nielsen herself left bilateral security meetings in Europe on Monday to return to the US to continue managing the situation at the southern border, a Department of Homeland Security official told CNN's Geneva Sands.

White House acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney said on ABC's "This Week" on Sunday that it would take "something dramatic" for the President to step back from his threat to close the border. Trump's political counselor Kellyanne Conway warned on "Fox News Sunday" that her boss's warning "certainly is not a bluff."

CNN's Pamela Brown reported on Monday that officials had explained the legal and practical implications of closing the border to the President earlier in his administration -- including the fact that some people live on one side of the border and send their kids to school or work on the other side.

But Trump is deeply frustrated and is fixated on a closure and has asked aides why the law can't be skirted.

Why closing the border would be so like Trump

If he is true to his most basic instincts, Trump will follow through on his threat.

Closing the border would be the kind of sweeping use of executive power that Trump loves. It would identify -- and punish -- an enemy, Mexico. A border shutdown would defy experts and the permanent bureaucracy in Washington who are worried about the dire consequences of such a step.

And pleasing his base on immigration has been a driving force of his presidency.

It's not clear that weeks of briefings by top officials worried about the impact of closing the border, or warnings by groups like the US Chamber of Commerce that Trump would invite "economic calamity," will sway the President when his mind is set.

He has, after all, an idiosyncratic view of trade, suggesting improbably over the weekend that sealing the border could cut the trade deficit and be a "profit-making operation."

During the longest government shutdown in history, Trump was prepared to inflict pain on hundreds of thousands of Americans -- government workers -- in the vain hope of trying to deliver a political victory for himself by forcing Congress to finance his border wall.

The President also has a tendency to prioritize short-term gains and ignore potential serious damage from his strategies farther down the road.

A case in point was his politically pleasing decision over the weekend to halt hundreds of millions of dollars in aid to Central American nations. The move is likely to eventually exacerbate the poor security and social conditions that make migrants flee the lawless countries they call home and head to the US border.

But his move was an aggressive use of presidential power and a blow against the concept of foreign aid in line with his "America First" policy, and it made him look tough to his supporters.

Unlike many other presidents, Trump has often been prepared to gamble with America's reputation and to ignore the implications on complicated international diplomatic questions of decisions on the world stage that benefit him politically.

He has yet to pay a long-term price for moving the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem or pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal. He was warned that both decisions could cause an uproar and damage America's reputation, so he may treat warnings from aides less seriously than might be expected.

Closing border posts along the US-Mexico frontier could exacerbate the migrant crisis -- however politically satisfying it may be for Trump.

One side effect might be to push asylum seekers away from official crossings into upcountry areas. Such a scenario might be used by the President to argue that there is an even greater need for his border wall -- although such spin would represent an audacious manipulation of the facts even for Trump.

A more targeted approach would be an emergency influx of legal officials, judges and asylum specialists to quickly process claims. New emergency accommodation for undocumented migrants along with caregivers could ease grim humanitarian conditions.

Yet the chance of Washington's battling political factions coming together to act seem slim since immigration is an issue that has defied bipartisan solutions for over a decade. Divides have been further exacerbated by Trump's inflammatory rhetoric on an issue that did more than any other to power his political ascent.

"Work with Congress and let's enact comprehensive immigration reform," Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin of Maryland told CNN's Dana Bash on Monday when asked what Trump should do.

"If the President really wants to get our immigration system the way it should be, work with us for comprehensive immigration reform and stop doing these types of activities that just turns our neighbors against us."

CNN's Pamela Brown, Jim Acosta and Abby Phillip contributed to this story.

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https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/02/politics/donald-trump-immigration-border-closure-crisis/index.html

2019-04-02 11:06:00Z
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